Until the end of last week, East and South China calcium carbide method PVC prices are in 7300 yuan (t price, the same below) above, the highest offer of 7,500 yuan; ethylene law is also around 7,500 yuan, the highest offer 7600 yuan. Although the transaction volume is not very large, the price is still relatively strong, rising gradually and ending the decline for several months.
The main factors for the new round of price increase are as follows:
The first is the national price increase of calcium carbide. As Inner Mongolia's electricity price is increased by 0.0157 yuan/kWh, and since June 1 this year, the electricity tariff has been used to make up the difference. This has directly stimulated the rise in the price of calcium carbide in Inner Mongolia, which has been unsustainable. This has led to a gradual decline in the calcium carbide market, which has long been depressed in the northwest. rising. The sudden increase in the price of calcium carbide made PVC manufacturers unpredictable and the supply of goods was once tight, which further stimulated the continued rise in the price of calcium carbide. Since the beginning of the northwest, the price of calcium carbide has gradually increased to the entire country. The price of calcium carbide in other regions of the country has also been adjusted upwards, which has formed a national wind-induced price rise of calcium carbide. The rise in the price of calcium carbide has increased the cost of PVC, which has prompted the PVC market, which has been experiencing a long period of softness, to begin to pick up.
The second is that crude oil prices have hit new highs. The current crude oil price is already above US$66/barrel, and the price still has an upward trend. It has been predicted that it will break through US$70/barrel in the short term. The soaring crude oil price has greatly increased the cost of the ethylene process, while raw material transportation costs have also skyrocketed.
Third, the operating rate of PVC production enterprises is not high. Ethylene PVC production companies have been unable to produce at full capacity due to the high cost of raw materials. Moreover, some large-scale plants affected the production due to installation problems. Due to the large scale of ethylene manufacturers, the limited production has a significant impact on the domestic PVC market supply. On the other hand, due to the delays in the expansion and production of some enterprises due to various reasons, the increase in supply expected in advance has not become a reality. In the first half of this year, domestic PVC production was 3.124 million tons, an increase of 28.5% year-on-year. Of which, the production of calcium carbide method was 2.102 million tons and the output of ethylene method was 1.022 million tons. The actual production in the first half of the year was smaller than expected, and it is expected that the devices put into operation after the extension will likely be concentrated in the second half of the year.
Fourth, the confidence of people in the industry has increased. One of the most critical factors in the market this year is the mentality of the industry. Because this year's domestic PVC overall supply (production + imports - exports) is almost the same as last year, but the market is very different, a far cry from each other. In the past, everyone’s panic had been affecting the market, and many people had left the market to wait and see. At the beginning of August, China Chlor-Alkali Industrial Association held a PVC industry conference in Dalian to give everyone a “centering pillâ€, and the market conditions also followed the trend and rose greatly.
The current downstream demand has slowly started, PVC market is always inadvertently surprise. However, because there are many uncertain factors in the second half of the year, and PVC production has increased rapidly, it cannot be blindly optimistic. In the long run, it is not a good thing that the price of PVC is too high or too fast. To stabilize the market, rational operation is the most important.
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