The twisted recovery process of the international economy has also made international oil prices increasingly elusive. Following the slight increase in international oil prices on November 23, international oil prices fluctuated again on November 24th. As the market expects US commercial crude oil and gasoline inventories to continue to increase, the price of light crude oil for delivery in January on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by 1.54. The US dollar closed at 76.02 U.S. dollars per barrel. Experts predict that international oil prices will “stumble†under the influence of numerous and complicated international factors. At least until the end of this year, the international oil price is unlikely to surge.
Uneven demand from countries
Although the U.S. economy has already taken a fast track of international economic recovery, as the world's largest demand for crude oil, the deep problems of the U.S. economy have not been resolved. A record of the most recent meeting of the US Federal Reserve Committee released on November 24th showed that most Fed policymakers believe that it may take 5 to 6 years for the US economy to recover completely.
The document shows that due to the various tests that are currently underway, it may take longer for the US economy to fully recover. According to the Federal Reserve’s interpretation, a complete restoration of health means that the U.S. economy achieves sustainable growth, employment continues to expand, and inflation levels are within the control of the Federal Reserve.
The Fed believes that the U.S. economic growth rate will be between negative 0.5% and zero this year, and it is expected to reach 2% to 4% next year. However, the unemployment rate will remain high, this year is expected to be between 9.8% and 10.3%, and it will still reach 8.6% to 10.22% next year.
Bruce Kasseman, chief global economist at JPMorgan Chase, told reporters that the U.S. economic recovery curve is not obvious at present, and it is difficult to describe it with “W†or “Vâ€. He said that the bad debt issue of the U.S. banking sector is still "pulling on the U.S. economy," but it has not brought "reverse risk" to the economic recovery.
Kasseman predicts that a global strong rebound that will last from one year to one and a half years already exists. The GDP growth rate of the United States will reach 3%-3.5% in 2010, and the growth rate in Japan and Western Europe will be around 2%. The average growth rate of the Asian economy will be 6%-7%.
Although the demand for crude oil in the United States is weak, emerging markets such as China are expected to become the new big demand for crude oil in the future. According to the International Energy Agency, China surpassed Japan in 2003 to become the world’s second largest fuel consumer. When the world is mostly in recession, China has maintained positive growth. In addition, it is expected that the demand for fuel in India will continue to rise.
The International Energy Agency predicts that China will surpass the United States in 2025 to become the world’s largest energy consumer. Both oil companies and OPEC members stated that in order to ensure investment in new crude oil exploration projects, it is necessary to maintain oil prices at 75 to 80 US dollars per barrel.
The dollar is hard to change
However, experts analyzed that in the long run, the trend of dollar devaluation will not change. The trend of economic recovery in the United States is complex. The Obama administration will not withdraw from the stimulus plan. This will inevitably increase the financial pressure on the U.S. government. Continued banknote printing may become the most immediate choice for the U.S. priority. In addition, Obama’s previous proposal to balance the world economy has become a new choice for the US government’s foreign economic policy. To achieve this goal, the US government will definitely maintain the depreciation trend of the US dollar against other countries’ currencies.
At present, the price of oil reached a new high of US$82 per barrel at the end of October this year, which is more than twice the price of US$32.4 per barrel in December last year. The recent international oil price is also floating around US$80 per barrel. In response, some experts said that the devaluation of the US dollar was the biggest factor in pushing up the overall strength of international oil prices.
Niu Li, an expert on energy issues at the National Information Center, predicts that the 2010 WTI (West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil) futures will maintain its average price in barrels per barrel due to the continued weakening of the US dollar in 2010, rising inflationary pressures, and difficult global economic growth. About 75 dollars.
Niu Li believes that despite the global economy's stabilization and recovery, the global economic recovery remains fragile under the influence of structural imbalances in the global economy, lack of endogenous growth, deteriorating employment prospects, and inflationary pressures. Activities are still far below the pre-crisis level.
Niu Pui expects that the dollar may remain weak in 2010. First, quantitative and loose monetary policy makes the money supply increase substantially. In the future, it will inevitably face severe inflationary pressures. The inherent stability of the dollar value will ultimately be affected by the supply of money.
Political factors are erratic
Niu Li also said that poor supervision of the commodity futures market will lead to speculation in 2010 continue to prevail. The trend of international oil prices is highly correlated with the speculative power in the oil futures market. When the net long position in oil futures rises, the price of oil will soar. As soon as oil futures speculative funds reduce their positions and even their net short positions, the price of oil will fall.
In December last year, the price of oil fell to the lowest price in five years. At that time, investors fled from oil and other risky assets and invested in relatively safe asylum assets such as gold and US dollars. In addition, geopolitical risks will always haunt the international oil market in 2010. Niu Li believes that geopolitical factors such as terrorist attacks on oil facilities, strikes by oil workers, political instability in oil-producing countries, etc. will all have an impact on international oil prices.
At present, there have been frequent terrorist attacks in Iraq and oil facilities have often been destroyed. The U.S.-led anti-terrorist activities in Afghanistan "have become more and more fearful." Not only has the situation in Afghanistan not been effectively controlled, it has continually escalated and has gradually spread to Pakistan, Iran and other places. Iran is an important oil-producing country in the world. When its nuclear issue is still pending, coupled with "terrorist activities," the "terror premium" of international crude oil will also increase.