Funds entrenched Xugong Machinery restructuring recovery effect gradually cashed out


Under the expectation of economic recovery, public funds began to shift their focus to the engineering machinery sector, which has benefited greatly. On October 16th, Xugong Machinery released its first performance report after the reorganization was completed. Up to about 10 times growth gave another shot to the fund of Shigekura.

The first three quarters of Xugong Machinery's net profit is expected to reach 1.27 billion yuan to 1.3 billion yuan, an increase of 1070.51% to 1098.16%. The company's stock price rose by 8.33% in the same day. From the perspective of the current institutions, they are still optimistic about the company's future development prospects, and also give higher expectations for the company's stock price.

Betting "reorganization" fund "color"

Xugong Machinery, formerly known as Xugong Technology, has been promoting the major shareholder Xugong Group to complete listings with the help of listed companies. With the company's renamed Xugong Machinery on September 8, most of XCMG's assets, institutions and personnel also entered the listed company.

The benefits this brings to listed companies are self-evident. In the performance forecast, the company said that due to the completion of the non-public issuance of shares to purchase assets and related transactions, the scope of consolidation has increased substantially, and the scale and profitability of the company have increased substantially.

This increase is reflected in the financial data, which is about 10 times the company's net profit growth in the first three quarters, and a year-on-year increase of 63% to 650% per share. This is exactly what the fund managers of Xugong Xucang Machinery Co., Ltd. are happy to see.

As early as before the reorganization of the company was completed, due to the clear expectation of a significant increase in performance after the reorganization of the company, many fund managers included Xugong Machinery in their own stocks. According to high-end financial statistics released by the Fund's interim data, there are 104 funds holding the stock, with a total shareholding of 188 million shares, accounting for 53.41% of the shares outstanding.

From the company's interim report, it can also be seen that the company's top ten shareholders of tradable shares have 8 public funds and 1 social security fund, holding a total of 78.907 million shares. Only these 9 institutions hold 22.42% of the company's outstanding shares.

Funds will not easily "let go"

In general, the law of the capital market reflects the fundamental situation in advance, which also leads to the phenomenon of “favoring the decline in the stock price”. The fact that China Unicom has continuously dropped its share price after completing the industry restructuring is an example. However, judging from the current position of the organization, this situation may not be repeated on Xugong Machinery.

On the day that Xugong Machinery announced its performance forecast, the CITIC Securities Research Department issued a report on the matter and said that the company’s earnings per share was around RMB 1.50, which exceeded the market’s expectations of around RMB 1.20. They increased the EPS of the company in 2009 and 2010 from 1.80 yuan and 2.16 yuan to 2.00 yuan and 2.44 yuan respectively, with a target price of 48.8 yuan, and maintained the company's "buy" rating.

This price still has 32.64% upside compared with the company's current closing price of 36.79 yuan.

The research report issued by Guotai Junan on October 16 indicated that in order to benefit from the sustained domestic demand stimulus policy, the truck cranes in the third quarter of this year exhibited an obvious “not off-season”, and sales in September were even more sequential. With the construction of a large number of high-speed railway and other infrastructure projects, they believe that the sales of cranes for major products will continue to increase in the fourth quarter; the company’s exports are also expected to begin to recover. Therefore, they raised the company's annual performance to 2.0 yuan, the target price was raised to 45 yuan, and maintained the "overweight" rating.

In fact, this optimistic expectation is related to the gradual warming of the engineering machinery industry on the one hand, and the direct link to the market performance of the company's share price on the other. If you do not consider the sharp rise in the company's stock price last Friday, its cumulative increase from July 1 to October 15 this year, but 2.97%, still lower than the cumulative increase of 3.83% in the Shenzhen Component Index during the same period.

At this stage, the public offering funds also focus on promising sectors such as construction machinery to benefit from recovery. Xinhua Fund Research Director Zhou Yongsheng believes that the economic recovery is in progress. It is expected that China's GDP growth in the second half of 2009 and 2010 will be mainly driven by domestic consumption and investment. At the same time, exports will gradually recover, and investment strategies will also shift from defense to offensive, mechanical equipment. It is one of the industries with great focus; Great Wall Fund and Dacheng Fund share the same views on the continued growth of real estate investment, so they are clearly optimistic about the upstream companies they drive, including construction machinery; Cathay Pacific Fund believes that the fourth quarter can be overweighted. Clearly benefit the economic recovery and export-related industries, especially the machinery industry.

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