April 20 steel market opening guide

First, the macro news briefing 1, the central bank has a deep meaning: market does not have to worry about liquidity. Relevant person in charge of the central bank stated that the PBC will continue to implement a sound monetary policy, adopt comprehensive measures in an integrated manner, appropriately pre-adjust and fine-tune in a timely manner, guide the steady and moderate growth of money and credit, maintain the liquidity of the banking system at a reasonable level, and support the national economy to achieve a more stable level. Rapid development. Such as through timely increase in reverse repurchase operations, cut the deposit reserve ratio, liquidity due to the release of the central bank bills and other methods, steadily increase liquidity supply. In this regard, analysts believe that the central bank intends to convey information to the market: the rationality of liquidity will be maintained in the near future, and the market need not worry about tight liquidity. From the perspective of supporting the needs of the real economy, the sensitive time window for adjusting the RRR is currently ushered in.

2. Minister of Railways Sheng Guangzu: Ensure the fulfillment of the Twelfth Five-Year Railway construction goals. Minister of Railways Sheng Guangzu recently stressed that it is necessary to fully implement the "12th Five-Year Plan" railway construction goals as planned. This is the clearest statement made by the Ministry of Railways on railway construction this year. According to the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” and funding conditions, fixed assets investment of 500 billion yuan was planned for 2012, of which 400 billion yuan was for capital construction and 6,366 kilometers for the new line. At the same time, we must actively seek local government investment, attract private capital, expand the sources of funds for railway construction, and provide continuous financial support for railway construction.

3. The BDI index rebounded and broke thousands of Maersk and other liner companies to seek further price increases in May. On April 18, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) finally recovered to 1,006 after reaching the bottom of 647 points on February 3 this year. After the two rounds of successful price increases in March and April, the large-scale liner companies of Maersk and others recently announced that they will conduct a new round of price increases on May 1. BDI increased slightly under the leadership of the Capesize and Panamax boats. Among them, the rise in sea-hull vessels was mainly due to the continuation of the de-inventory process of iron ore in China, and the rising demand for imported ore; while the new pallets for coal and grain supported the Panamax freight rate index higher than 10%. rise.

4. Extension of Service Chain WISCO's East China Silicon Steel Processing and Distribution Center has been put into operation. On the 18th, the first professional silicon steel processing and distribution center established by Wuhan Iron and Steel Corporation in East China, Shanghai Wugang Steel Processing Co., Ltd., held an opening ceremony at No. 3 Terminal, Rongjiang Road, marking Shanghai's cut-and-slip production officially started on the 18th. The purpose of Shanghai Splicing is to rely on Wuhan Iron & Steel, a global supplier of silicon steel products, to provide value-added services such as warehousing, shear processing, logistics and distribution for users in industries such as transformers, motors, power tools and household appliances in East China. The project is planned to be implemented in three phases: the first phase is a 1300mm cold-rolled silicon steel slitting production line; the second phase is the new motor stator and rotor punching and transformer core lamination equipment; the product line extends to the downstream industry; Slitting unit and two crosscutting units (coverage includes tinplate, ultra-thin cold rolled full range of products).

5. Some mills in the European hot coil market are planning to reduce their Euro 20 prices. The European coil market is weak. Since March, the prices of hot coils in the European market have been maintained at €540-555/tonne, a slight drop of €5/tonne this week to €535-550/tonne. However, the bleak sales, coupled with the pressure of overcapacity in the market and the relatively large discounts given by the steel mills, the prices could not be stabilized. Some medium-sized steel mills are planning to reduce the offer by €10-20/t. Other Far East imports have a smaller number of products, and offer prices are not competitive; Turkish steel mills are more focused on the domestic market; while CIS imports have a low price, but they are not enough to affect steel prices.

Second, the relevant disk summary US stocks fell last night, the Dow fell below the 13,000 mark. Most of the economic data released in the morning was bearish, and the European state and economic data were also worrying, offsetting the good news of corporate earnings. As of the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 68.73 points to close at 12,964.02 points, a decrease of 0.53%; Nasdaq Composite Index fell 23.89 points to close at 3,007.56 points, a drop of 0.79%; S & P 500 index fell 8.22 points, to close at 1,376.92 points, a decrease of 0.59%. Crude oil futures fell 0.4% to close at $102.27 a barrel. Gold futures rose 0.1% to settle at $1,641.40 an ounce. The closing price of LME copper was $8050, which was the same as yesterday's price.

Third, the billet price trend early on the 20th, yesterday, Tangshan billet prices fell 10 yuan / ton, Changli to the cash tax price of 3780 yuan / ton; the market price of 3590-3600 yuan / ton, the market continued to drop for four days , The transaction still has no improvement, waiting to see strong emotions, ore price trend yesterday, the domestic iron ore market as a whole consolidation situation, some manufacturers have dark down conditions, the general performance of the transaction. Following the reduction of iron ore prices by individual large-scale mining companies last week, the iron concentrate market in the Hanxing area has been affected, and the market has a rather strong wait-and-see atmosphere. The weaker decline in Tangshan and Northeast China in the previous period added to the overall weakness of the domestic ore market. The import ore market under the influence of weak domestic production, market pressure has also been highlighted, up weak. The market price of 63.5% of domestic main port printing powder is in the range of 1060-1070 yuan, and the mainstream price of 61.5% of Australian flour is in the range of 1020-1030 yuan. 63.5% of the price of printing ink outside the plate in the 149-151 US dollars; 58/57% of the mainstream in the 125-127 US dollars / ton; 61.5% Australian powder outside the plate quoted at 144-146 US dollars.

V. Coke price movements The domestic coke market did not change much yesterday. The quotations in the leading regions were mainly stable. In late April, the coking plant of steel mills intends to reduce the clean coal inventories in order to increase the capital circulation capacity. As a result, the clean coal stocks increase slightly, and the stocks of coal companies continue to grow. The downward pressure on prices of the coal companies is relatively high, and the prices of the coking coal enterprises are certain. "Threat", but at this stage, the independent operation of coking enterprises still has a certain price advantage. Under the support of certain demand, the price of coking enterprises is still firm and there is no willingness to adjust prices in the short term. The secondary metallurgical coke in Tangshan market is maintained at 1,800-1,840 yuan/ton, the secondary metallurgical coke in Shanxi is 1700-1,720 yuan, the taxable price of the quasi-class metallurgical coke is 1810-1830 yuan, and the secondary metallurgical coke is 1830 in Hebei province. -1850 yuan.

6. The coiled hot coil closed at the close of April 19th. The closing price of the 25mm secondary rebar in the Beijing market was 4,250 yuan/ton, which was the same as the previous day's price. The Shanghai market's secondary rebar was 4,180 yuan/ton, which was the same as the previous day's price; the Guangzhou market The secondary rebar was 4,360 yuan/ton, which was a drop of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day.

On April 19, the closing price of 5.5mmQ235 hot-rolled coil in Shanghai market was 4330 yuan/ton, which was the same as the previous day's price; the closing price of hot coil in Tianjin market was 4300 yuan/ton, which was the same as the price of the previous day; the closing price of hot money in Lecong market was 4400. RMB/ton, which is the same as the previous day's price.

VII. Analysis of screw generations On April 19, the main contract of rebar futures opened lower and closed lower and closed at 4315, down 20 or 0.46%. The number of households increased by 40,690 to 605,156, and the position increased by 34,322 to 806,406 lots. Today RB1210 contract Masukura fell, the period approaching 4300 mark. The transaction in the spot market continued to remain in a light state. Under the circumstance that a small number of merchants slightly lowered the quotation, following the trend was not uncommon. Technically, the period price still runs below the 5th line, and the BOLL indicator on the daily line shows that there are signs of expansion in the period. Operational recommendations, short-term 4300 to long and short watershed. The price pressure point is expected to be 4330 yuan/ton today and the support point is 4280 yuan/ton.

On April 19, the main contract for bulk hot-rolled coils was opened at 4334 yuan/ton in the morning, with narrow oscillations in the morning and the highest touched at 4,339 yuan/ton. The market opened rapidly in mid-day and fell to the most in the day. After the base point of 4,316 yuan/ton, it stopped falling and recovered. It eventually closed at 4,322 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From the disk point of view, today's hot roll prices failed to extend yesterday's rally, under the pressure of the averages, the price fell all the way, the current price has deviated from the oscillation channel formed recently. The price pressure point is expected to be 4330 yuan/ton today, and the support point is 4300 yuan/ton.

Eight, spot price forecast is expected today Beijing market 25mm secondary rebar prices fell 20 yuan / ton, to 4230 yuan / ton; Shanghai market rebar quotation is stable, at 4180 yuan / ton; Guangzhou market secondary rebar market The price is stable, quoted at 4,360 yuan / ton.

It is estimated that the mainstream quotation for 5.5mmQ235 hot-rolled coils in Shanghai market today will fall by RMB 20/t to RMB 4,310/t; the listing price for hot-rolled coils in Tianjin market will be RMB 4280/t, with prices falling by RMB 10/t; Lecong's quotation for hot coils will temporarily Stable, the market price is 4400 yuan / ton.