After the Spring Festival, under the support of rising petrochemical companies' intentions, high raw material propylene prices, and tight marketable resources, the polypropylene market has a more upbeat atmosphere. At the beginning of February, the mainstream offer of domestic polypropylene market was 10,200 to 10,650 yuan/ton. Although the polypropylene market is improving in the short term, in the long run, the multiple competition situation in the polypropylene industry may lead to a product supply balance between supply and demand, even oversupply in a few years.
In 2011, a large amount of new coal-produced polypropylene capacity was put into operation, changing the production pattern. With the China Shenhua Group's Baotou 600,000 tons/year coal-to-olefins and Shenhua Ning Coal 500,000 tons/year coal-based polypropylene two projects have been put into commercial operation one after another, as well as China Datang's Duolun coal-based polypropylene project process Open up, China's polypropylene production broke the past history of a single oil as raw material, in 2011 China's coal-based polypropylene production capacity has reached 800,000 tons, the market gradually diversified competition, polypropylene prices have fluctuated. In the fourth quarter of 2011, the polypropylene market experienced a downward trend. On September 28, 2011, the average market price was 12,183 yuan per ton, and it fell to 10,216 yuan per ton on December 28, with an average decline of 16.14%. At the same time, economic growth has slowed down and downstream consumer demand has been insufficient. This "increase a slow" squeezed the polypropylene market space.
Polypropylene is the most important downstream product of propylene. 50% of the world's propylene and 65% of China's propylene are used to produce polypropylene. There are more than 80 polypropylene production enterprises in China. By the end of 2011, the polypropylene production capacity was 12.7 million tons and the actual output was 9.17 million tons. In 2011, the apparent consumption of polypropylene in China was 13.89 million tons. The average growth rate of consumption from 2002 to 2010 was 10.7%, which greatly exceeded the average growth rate of 6% in the world. The strong market demand gave birth to the rapid development of the polypropylene industry. . The downstream consumption of polypropylene in China is mainly knitwear and injection molding products. Demand is mainly concentrated in East China and South China, accounting for more than 60% of national demand. Imports are also concentrated in these two regions. The consumer demand in North China is in the growth period and accounts for about 12% of the national demand.
Although the production capacity has been increasing year by year, China's polypropylene is still showing a situation of insufficient supply. The domestic satisfaction rate is about 60%, and the gap is still made up by imports. The import volume has increased from 2.24 million tons in 2002 to 4.8 million tons in 2010, becoming the largest in the world. Polypropylene net importer.
From a global perspective, since 2005, the polypropylene production capacity has grown rapidly, exceeding the increase in consumption, and the trend of supply exceeds demand. In the past 10 years, the global polypropylene consumption demand has maintained a rapid growth momentum. In particular, China and India have become the driving force for the growth of polypropylene demand. Europe, North America and the Asia-Pacific region are the main regions for polypropylene consumption, accounting for 3/4 of global consumption. Polypropylene supply is concentrated in North America, Middle East, Asia Pacific, and Europe. The regions with faster capacity growth are the Middle East and China. The former has cheap oil and gas resources, while the latter is due to a huge gap in domestic demand. In 2005, the global polypropylene production capacity, output and consumption amounted to 43.617 million tons, 39.924 million tons and 39.85 million tons respectively, and in 2011 they were 68.574 million tons, 5737.6 and 57.376 million tons, respectively. The growth rate has accelerated significantly since 2009.
According to analysis, the oversupply of polypropylene in the domestic market is inevitable in the next few years. In recent years, China has become the fastest growing country in the world in the production and consumption of polyolefins. The production, consumption, and import of polyolefins have all grown at a relatively rapid rate. The huge market space has triggered investors to extensively develop coal-to-olefins fields. attention. It is understood that China has emerged several major directions of oil routes, coal-based routes, and polypropylene production from methanol.
There are basically two models for domestic development of coal-to-olefins and methanol-to-olefins: one is to rely on coal production sites to build integrated coal-to-olefins projects; the other is to rely on outsourcing of methanol from coastal ports to build an independent methanol-to-olefins project. At present, a new development trend is emerging: based on existing coal-to-methanol production facilities, new methanol plants will be used to supplement production capacity or to purchase a portion of methanol feedstock, and to develop methanol to olefins and downstream projects. It is understood that Sinopec, Shenhua, Shenhua Ning Coal and Lenovo are currently developing such projects.
According to incomplete statistics, China alone is planning to launch more than 20 coal-based polypropylene and methanol-based polypropylene projects with a capacity of 6 million to 10 million tons per year. If all the polypropylene projects planned during the "12th Five-Year Plan" period are completed, it is expected that in 2015, China's total polypropylene production capacity will reach 18 million to 20 million tons, and the output will be approximately 19 million tons. The situation that China's polypropylene market is in short supply may be reversed. .
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