Comment on the effect of limited-car measures in first-tier cities

The contradiction between urban transport and automobile development in China has caused great concern from the government. Many first-tier cities have successively thrown out "limited car plans." Are these car restriction policies the same as their implementation?

After the National Day, Chengdu began to expand the scope of the tail number restriction. The Shenzhen Development and Reform Commission admitted that it is studying the collection of vehicle sewage charges. The Beijing Traffic Commission also said at the same time that it would assess the feasibility of implementing the vehicle single and double number limit measures at specific times and in certain regions. Shanghai also recently revealed that it is necessary to open green channels for energy-saving and new energy vehicles for free.

In addition to the combination of Beijing's Yaohao, Shanghai's playing cards, and Guangzhou's Yaohao combination of playing cards, in the face of the surging army of cars, Chinese cities have resorted to all kinds of "limited car plans." How effective is this? Who is the next plan?

Beijing Yaohao limit line of fairness across the board, index "shake" and not <br> <br> strategy: Beijing on January 1, 2011 the first domestic car Yao Hao first of its kind, providing 240,000 car indicators each year, all units and individuals need to obtain Beijing All passenger car indexes are obtained free of charge by means of Yaohao. Individuals account for 88% of quotas, and passenger buses account for 2% of quotas. Other unit indicators account for 10%. One year after the implementation, this year began the second revision of the Yaohao policy. The total number of Yaohao indicators has not changed, the allocation ratio has been fine-tuned, and the proportion of operating bus allowances has increased by 2%, and the unit index has decreased by 2%. In view of the fact that individuals have not shaken their numbers for many times, the longest shake application has been extended from 3 months to 6 months.

In addition, Beijing has also adopted the method of issuing Beijing-bound permits to implement the foreign-car limit policy for sub-periods and sub-regions, as well as limit the number of trips to be implemented on a weekly basis.

Positive influence:

1. Congestion in Beijing City has been eased. According to Beijing’s official data, since the implementation of the “blocking measures” series, Beijing’s traffic congestion index has fallen by 12% in 2011. The average speed of morning and evening peaks has increased by 13%, and the duration of congested roads and congestion has decreased by 50%.

2. The speed of growth of motor vehicles is effectively contained. In 2007, the number of motor vehicles in Beijing increased by 250,000 annually, with an increase of 370,000 units in 2008, an increase of 515,000 vehicles in 2009 and close to 810,000 vehicles in 2010. Before 2007, the average annual growth of motor vehicles in Beijing was 180,000 vehicles. In 2011, the number of newly added motor vehicles in Beijing was less than 240,000, which was less than 30% in 2010.

side effect:

1. The proportion of the Yaohao sign was too low and the number of discarded people was higher. The initial success rate of the Beijing Yaohao was 1:11. Since then, the ratio has dropped to 1:40.8 at the end of last year. By August this year, it had hit a record low, with the odds ratio as low as 1:52.8.

2. The effect of blocking the trembling sign gradually weakens. Recently, the Beijing Traffic Commission released the Traffic Congestion Status Report for September, pointing out that Beijing's traffic congestion index increased by 10.3% over the same period of last year. The blockage benefits brought by the Yaohao last year are gradually weakening.

3. The number of cards on the foreign vehicles increased.

Upgraded version guess:

1. Single and double number limit line. A few days ago, Beijing said that it will study the feasibility of further implementing the flexible work system and the erroneous work plan for commuting to and from work, and assessing the implementation of the vehicle single and double number restriction measures at specific times and in specific regions.

2. Appropriately increase the Yaohao indicator. Cui Dongshu, deputy secretary-general of the National Federation of Chessmen, once pointed out that there are approximately 2 million people in Beijing who do not have a driver's license. If these people have the need for car purchase, the number of people may not be sufficient in 1988, according to 240,000 vehicles per year. To the number.

3. Differentiate the urgency of applying for car purchases.

4. To collect sewage charges.

Shanghai shot brand limit line "shoot down" the money people, the rich still <br> <br> brand strategy: in the shot brand, Shanghai can be described as historic. Before 2000, Shanghai had auctioned off the license plate and the auction was not open. In 2000, the Shanghai Municipal Government adopted an auction without a floor price. A total of 14,000 licenses were issued in that year, and the average annual bid price was 14,416 yuan. In general, the average price of playing cards has been rising all the way in the past ten years. According to the latest news, the average price of Shanghai license plate auctions in October exceeded 66,000 yuan.

With regard to the line-limit policy, the Shanghai and Shanghai license plates on the outskirts of Shanghai can only be driven outside the Shanghai Outer Ring Road. Outside-the-road vehicles can enter the urban area normally except for peaks that cannot be elevated.

Positive influence:

The 1.10-year limited licensing policy has effectively curbed the growth of Shanghai's vehicle ownership. According to research results of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, by the end of 2011, the number of vehicles in Shanghai was 1,893,900, a 13.41% increase over the same period of 2010, and a net increase of 231,000 vehicles.

2. The decision on the price of the license plate is given to the market and adjusted according to the normal supply and demand laws of the market, so that those who are eager to use the car will be free from "shaking" the situation that is not.

side effect:

1. The licensing policy has no obvious effect on the restriction of high-income people. The high price of playing cards has greatly increased the cost of car purchases for the working class.

2. The number of foreign cards on the local vehicle has soared. It is understood that there are about 100,000 foreign licensed private cars traveling on the Shanghai road. Due to the relatively relaxed restriction on foreign vehicles in Shanghai, the restrictions imposed on the Shanghai C license were smaller, resulting in many Shanghai locals opting for "Lu", "èµ£" and "çš–" licenses.

Upgraded version guess:

1. Provide free quotas for energy-saving and new energy vehicles, adopt special segment number plates for management, and the quota of new energy vehicles is not within the total amount of ordinary new motor vehicle quotas.

2. Extend the limit of foreign cars. The use of foreign licenses to avoid the high price tag has almost become the most cost-effective way to drive in Shanghai, and it has also caused strong opposition from Shanghai-C car owners, which has greatly reduced the effectiveness of blockage policies. Prior to this, the Shanghai municipal government also disclosed that it would consider emulating the policy of Beijing’s non-entry vehicles to enter the Wuhuan and increase the limit of foreign vehicles in Shanghai.

3. Further limit Shanghai people's foreign land card. After Jiangsu and Zhejiang introduced a restriction order for Shanghai people, the "Su" brand and "Zhe" brand, which had previously been favored by Shanghai, have been difficult to handle.

Guangzhou ordinary wave number of new energy beat Yao Hao limit line brand portfolio is more moderate, to make way for a new energy policy <br> <br>: Guangzhou enacted limited license to make at the end of June this year, the annual limit 120 000 car indicators Yaohao and beat each brand Half of it. Subsequently, in Guangzhou, the rules for limiting orders were issued at the end of July, adding the new energy Yaohao indicator. 10% of the 10,000 vehicles newly added each month are used for new energy vehicles, 50% for Yaohao and 40% for auction. The rules for the foreign car restrictions have not yet been announced.

Positive influence:

Since the Guangzhou restricted license policy is currently implemented for more than three months, the effects of "blocking the blockade" and "environmental protection" cannot be evaluated yet. However, Guangzhou's innovative use of both Yaohao and Huapai at the same time can, to some extent, prevent Guangzhou from repeating the mistakes of Beijing's low bid-winning rate and high Shanghai auction price. Judging from the current implementation effect of the New Deal in August and September, the proportion of China’s midterm in August was 1:6, the proportion of China’s midterm in September was 1:16, the average price of individual cards in August was 22,822 yuan, and the average price of individual cards in September was 14138. yuan. The proportion of successful bids and the average price of playing cards are still at a relatively reasonable level.

side effect:

1. In the short term, after the introduction of the Guangzhou restricted license, the auto market in Guangzhou experienced pains and some 4S shops chose to withdraw from the Guangzhou market or perform layoffs. However, after experiencing the painful period, the dealer group has gradually increased its investment in the Guangzhou auto market, especially in the mid-to-high end brand areas.

2. Significant increase in the number of Guangzhou visitors to the field. In the South China Sea alone, from July to September this year, more than 1,300 vehicles were licensed by Guangzhou residents to apply for residence permits to the Nanhai Vehicle Administration. The announcement of the rules for the introduction of foreign vehicle restrictions will hopefully curb this trend.

Shenzhen <br> <br> study sewage charges levy sewage charges conducive to raise money, is not conducive reduction strategies: The most recent travels, Wind & Fire is not referring to measures Shenzhen wide north limit of the card, auto sewage charges will have to This limits the rapid expansion of car ownership. Finally, the Shenzhen government’s plan for the collection of sewage charges is under research. The specific plan has not yet been clarified.

Prediction of Effect: Sewage charges are not another innovation after the shake number and branding. As early as 1998, Hangzhou, Zhengzhou, and Jilin City were selected as the national pilot cities for “total emission charges”, and they have collected vehicle sewage charges for a long time. 5 years. However, due to the insignificant emission reduction effect, the final scheme was abandoned in pilot cities in 2003.

Upgraded version of the speculation: For the people's opposition, the Shenzhen Development and Reform Commission said that in the future will use a combination of boxing to meet the levy of sewage charges, comprehensive management, including the collection of sewage charges in new energy car subsidies.

Chengdu <br> <br> expand the range limit line tail number limit line can not stop the enthusiasm of the people of Chengdu car strategy: Chengdu in April this year across the board in the Second Ring Road and 7 Radioactive main roads, all foreign nationals and Sichuan A car number plate On the implementation working day, traffic management measures for the “tail number limit” transportation system between the 2nd and 3rd ring roads of the license plate are used.

Positive influence: Chengdu has become a "blockage." As of the end of August this year, the number of cars held in Chengdu reached 2.1141 million. The number of vehicles on a single month has exceeded the 20,000 mark for 44 consecutive months, and 621 new cars have been installed on each working day in the city. The tail number restriction measures just implemented in April could not stop the enthusiasm of the people of Chengdu in buying cars. The congestion in the urban areas has been aggravated. In less than six months of implementation, the government has had to expand the scope of restrictions, which shows that the congestion situation is critical. The positive effect is that at least a few minutes later between the two or three loops can be blocked.

Upgraded version of the speculation: Chengdu is also the next big limit city limit, like Shenzhen, from time to time there will be rumors, and then officially clarified.