Although China has become the world's largest automobile production and sales country for seven consecutive years, "big but not strong" has always been the status quo that China's auto industry has not been able to get rid of. In the new stage of rapid growth of new energy vehicles, Chinese cars can achieve "curve overtaking" "?
After nearly a hundred years of crouching, new energy vehicles have finally entered the "stage" of the times.
With the emergence of the global energy crisis and the increasing pressure on environmental protection in recent years, relevant leaders of various countries are more or less promoting the energy strategies of their respective countries, and the promotion of new energy vehicles is an important part of this.
Policy-driven industry growth
In 2015, it is important and special for the development of the new energy automobile industry. According to the relevant research institute "China's new energy auto industry market prospects and investment strategic planning analysis report", as of the end of 2015, the number of new energy vehicles in the country reached 583,200, a sharp increase of 169% compared with 2014, China has become the world's largest The incremental market for new energy vehicles.
In fact, there is not much surprise in the industry for data such as new energy vehicles. Although China's new energy technology started not early, in 2001, the new energy vehicle research project was included in the “863†major scientific and technological project during the national “Tenth Five-Year Plan†period, and planned to take the gasoline vehicle as the starting point to the hydrogen-powered vehicle target. Advance strategy. From this time on, with the support of the policy, major auto manufacturers and researchers began to promote the development and popularization of “new energyâ€.
Since 2014, in the face of deteriorating air quality, the promotion of new energy has been continuously strengthened. From the central attention to the local promotion, various preferential policies for new energy vehicles have followed. "From September 1st, 2014 to the end of 2017, the news of exempting new energy vehicle purchase tax" has undoubtedly greatly narrowed the distance between ordinary people and new energy vehicles.
At the same time, the support of policies has also allowed car companies to see business opportunities, and various new energy vehicles have emerged one after another. In particular, new energy vehicles with independent brands have ushered in rapid growth. According to incomplete statistics, in 2015, dozens of hybrid and electric vehicles from BYD%, Zhongtai, Beiqi and other manufacturers were put into the market, and the corresponding supporting facilities and new technologies were also used. Let new energy vehicles ushered in sales growth.
In 2015, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the technical roadmap for the key areas of “Made in China 2025â€, in which energy-saving and new energy vehicles became one of the ten key development areas, and independent brands became the main force to realize the accelerated development of China's new energy automobile industry. According to the above roadmap, the sales volume of China's new energy vehicles will reach more than 5% of the total demand of the automobile market in 2020; the annual sales volume of independent new energy vehicles will exceed 1 million, and the market share will reach over 70%, creating a star model and entering global sales. Top ten.
As a result, new energy vehicles began to move from the cultivation period of the market to a stage of rapid growth.
New energy passenger car market competition intensified
Although China has become the world's largest automobile production and sales country for seven consecutive years, "big but not strong" has always been the status quo that China's auto industry has not been able to get rid of. In the new stage of rapid growth of new energy vehicles, Chinese cars can achieve "curve overtaking" "?
"Our traditional car is not doing well because the engine and transmission as the core technology have always been the bottleneck, but the core technology of the new energy car is the battery, and our battery industry and Japan and South Korea can be the top three in the world, BMW, etc. The top manufacturers of electric vehicles are using Chinese batteries," said Ouyang Minggao, director of the State Key Laboratory of Automotive Safety and Energy, Tsinghua University. In the view of Ouyang Minggao, Chinese companies have occupied the "time and place" in the wave of new energy vehicles, and it is worth a full effort. "China has relatively advanced the new energy vehicles to the national strategy, has a good accumulation, and has the world's largest auto market to support. At present, new energy vehicles have great room for innovation in all aspects of the industrial chain. This provides a rare historical opportunity for China to establish independent intellectual property rights and cultivate independent brands in the new energy automobile industry."
In fact, with the development of the industry, the competitive landscape of the domestic new energy passenger vehicle market has begun to appear. The reporter learned that in the field of pure electric passenger vehicles, Geely, Jiangnan Automobile, Beiqi, Jianghuai Automobile and BYD produced a total of 114,000 vehicles in 2015, accounting for 80% of the total pure electric passenger vehicle market output; plug-in hybrid In the field of power passenger vehicles, BYD, SAIC, GAC and BMW Brilliance produced a total of 61,000 vehicles in 2015, accounting for 96% of the total plug-in hybrid passenger vehicle market. The concentration of the new energy bus market is relatively high, and the positions of Yutong Bus, Zhongtong Bus and other car companies in the pure electric bus market are quite stable.
Even so, the players in the automotive industry continue to increase. In June 2015, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the “Regulations on the Management of New Pure Electric Passenger Vehicle Enterprisesâ€, which broke the barriers to entry for passenger vehicle manufacturers. Some Internet companies, such as LeTV and Weilai, have successively released new energy vehicle strategies and are preparing to enter the new energy automobile industry.
Although the influx of new entrants will intensify competition in the new energy vehicle industry, the entry of new entrants, especially those of the non-traditional automobile industry, has also increased the momentum of development. This is very beneficial to improve the industrial vitality of new energy vehicles.
Development bottleneck
Charging infrastructure is an important guarantee for the development of new energy vehicles, which greatly affects the development of the new energy vehicle industry. It is understood that China's charging infrastructure mainly includes charging piles and charging and replacing power stations, mainly by the State Grid Corporation, China Southern Power Grid Corporation and Putian New Energy Company. Statistics show that as of the end of 2015, China has built more than 3,600 charging and replacing stations, and the number of public charging piles exceeded 49,000.
"The number and layout of China's charging infrastructure construction cannot support the rapid development of new energy vehicles," an industry researcher told reporters. He said that in fact, the price and appearance are not so important for consumers eager to choose new energy vehicles, and the charging pile is related to whether the car can be opened freely. But in fact, due to problems such as private parking spaces and voltage loads in old communities, charging piles are not yet able to achieve the level of installation that can be achieved by every household. This has, to a certain extent, discouraged potential new energy vehicle buyers.
However, Li Lili, the chief engineer of the State Grid Energy Research Institute of Grid Development, has his own opinion. In an interview with reporters, he agreed that the charging facility is now a very prominent bottleneck, but he is more optimistic about the future. "There may not be so many charging piles in the future."
Li Lili believes that the unusual demand for electric vehicles for charging piles lies in the short cruising range, which means that the frequency and process of charging electric vehicles are obviously not superior to those of fuel vehicles. "But if we look at it from a development perspective, the mainstream electric vehicle mileage should be around 300 kilometers after two to three years. At that time, the dependence of electric vehicles on charging piles will be significantly reduced."
In Li Lili's view, battery technology may be faster than people think. For example, in 2012 and 2013, about one kilowatt-hour of battery was 4,000 yuan, but now it is only 2,000 yuan. He expects that in two years, the cost of 1,000 yuan a kWh is fully achievable. He believes that when this bottleneck opens, electric vehicles will really enter a period of great development.
In fact, many companies are currently studying ways to more easily solve the problem of charging electric vehicles. For example, Volvo has developed a way to charge online. In addition to the current normal charging and fast charging, BAIC can also change the battery. It is now possible to quickly replace the battery in 2 to 5 minutes. These are all a relatively good solution.
Subsidies are not once and for all
The sales of new energy vehicles are rising, and there is no shadow behind the digital glare.
On September 8, 2016, the Ministry of Finance named the five typical problem enterprises of Jim West, Suzhou Jinlong, Wuzhoulong, Chery Wanda and Shaolin Bus in the notice on the special inspection of new energy vehicles. Five enterprises have accused the central government of subsidizing more than 1 billion yuan of financial subsidies, involving false declarations or declared 3,500 uncompleted vehicles. Although the final fraudulent investigation results are still inconclusive, but only the results that have been announced so far, the amount involved and the number of models are high, which makes people stunned. In the current situation of China's new energy automobile industry, the new energy automobile industry is booming. The development has cast a shadow.
In fact, since the beginning of this year, the growth rate of new energy vehicles has slowed down due to the influence of "shadows". According to the latest data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in August, sales of new energy vehicles were 42,000 units, an increase of 81.5% year-on-year. Among them, sales of new energy commercial vehicles increased by only 36.9% year-on-year. In the first eight months, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China was 258,000, an increase of 111% year-on-year.
For the slowdown in growth, Xu Yanhua, deputy secretary general of the China Automobile Association, said that the impact of fraudulent compensation is great. Previously, the China Automobile Association may adjust the sales target set to 700,000 this year. Xu Yanhua said that the sales target of new energy vehicles this year mainly depends on the release time of the “subsidy adjustment policyâ€. Ideally, if the policy can be released before October, the sales volume of new energy vehicles may reach 500,000 this year.
Zhang Zhiyong, a senior commentator in the automotive industry, believes that the original intention of financial subsidies is to solve the problem of high cost in the initial stage of new energy vehicle industrialization. As the market gradually enlarges, the cost of core components of power batteries has been greatly reduced, and financial subsidies have even become a source of profit for individual manufacturers, which has caused many car companies to swindle. Relevant departments should substantially increase the threshold of financial subsidies and accelerate the withdrawal of subsidy policies.
"Overall, this is still a policy-driven market, and its unsustainability has begun to appear." Chen Qingtai, chairman of the China Electric Vehicle Hundred People's Association, said that from this year, the state subsidy policy began to decline. China's electric vehicles face a big challenge, that is, as the government subsidy policy enters the retreat channel, the process of improving the cost performance of electric vehicles can keep up with the process of policy declining, and gradually embark on the market by relying on the market. path of. This has become the key to the success of China's electric vehicle industry.
In Chen Qingtai's view, the development momentum of electric vehicles has reached a transition period from policy-driven to innovation-driven. The decline in car subsidies is precisely the transformation of government support policies to promote innovation. That is to say, while purchasing cars and subsidies are gradually decreasing, the government should increase support in the research and development process, and concentrate resources to support enterprises to break through technical bottlenecks in terms of power batteries, core components, electronic control technology, lightweight, and intelligent.
The top level system is being established
In August, the two major policies of the New Energy Vehicle Manufacturing Enterprise and Product Access Management Regulations (Revised) and the New Energy Vehicle Carbon Quota Management Measures were successively launched. Although the vaccination has already been taken, the policy has suddenly come. Still let many new energy auto companies feel pressure. “The beginning of the chaos and the cultivation of the strong, the process must be accompanied by the elimination and death.†A person in charge of a new energy vehicle 4S store in Beijing said that after the initial development, the country began to consciously rectify the new energy automobile industry. We will focus on cultivating pillar enterprises.
In these two new policies, the Regulations on the Administration of New Energy Vehicle Manufacturers and Products (Revised) will adjust the scope of new energy vehicles to pure electric vehicles , plug-in hybrid vehicles and fuel cell electric vehicles, and strengthen new energy vehicle products. Safety monitoring further enhances industry entry barriers, and constrains and controls the safety of automotive manufacturers.
The "Measures for the Management of Carbon Equity for New Energy Vehicles" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission (draft for comments) is intended to be piloted in 2017 and officially implemented in 2018. The Exposure Draft pointed out that the amount of carbon credits for new energy vehicles to be paid by fuel-vehicle-scale enterprises is calculated based on the number of fuel vehicles produced and imported, the composition of products, and the annual ratio requirements for new energy vehicles. It is noteworthy that the relevant rules of this new deal are still in the discussion stage, and the carbon price price is the key.
Industry analysts said that the current development of new energy vehicles is fast, but there is a trend of scattered, and there is no mechanism for how to promote the healthy competition between traditional and new energy vehicles. Therefore, these two documents are the signals of the policy-level scientific management of the automobile market, and new policies will have this tendency in the future.
Obviously, a more robust and scientific car top-level system is being established while making heavy efforts to improve the entry barriers for new energy vehicles and promoting market-based trading of carbon allowances.
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