Multi-national supplier survey responds to the automobile market in the global crisis

Will tomorrow be better? Choose nearly 30 multinational suppliers to answer 20 questions under the global crisis.

"Automotive Business Review" hopes that local suppliers and OEMs can learn from these wise judgments.

Until I went to print, I still hesitated whether the title was too straightforward. This is a statement and not a conclusion. I can only describe the results of this survey with a question in the quotation. In this age when everyone is rethinking about the crisis, the conclusive answer is more noticeable than the question, but it is impossible to make this conclusion.

This survey report is the first time since the publication of the "Automotive Business Review" for the first time in two and a half years, it has tried to bring together the industry's mainstream opinions through questionnaires. The survey question was set to 20 multiple-choice questions, while the surveyed parties were set up as multinational auto parts suppliers that have been operating in the Chinese market for a long time. From a geographical point of view, they cover North America, Europe, and Japan, which are the three most powerful regions in the world automotive industry.

These three regions are also the regions that have been hit hardest by the financial turmoil. This is one of the reasons why Auto Business Review chose a multinational supplier as the survey object. Regardless of the Chinese market, senior executives of these companies have experienced many crisis cases in the global market. Their global perspective and industry experience are not only one of their advantages in the Chinese market, but also Chinese companies need to learn from it. One of the fields.

The "Automotive Business Review" attached four interviews after the investigation report. Some of the interviewees participated in the survey and some did not. We hope that the local suppliers or OEMs can learn from these wise judgments.

The investigation time was from March 2009 to April two months. The survey method was divided into three categories: first, face-to-face interview, second, written reply, and third, brief question and answer. The initial list was 20 companies and the number of enterprises actually contacted was close to 30. Of the valid questionnaires returned, 9 were full answers to 20 questions, and 5 were partially answered. Some of the companies and executives involved in the survey requested anonymity, but they still provided very informative answers and interpretations of the current situation.

At some press conferences, I was able to face some of the questions raised by senior executives of multinational corporations asking questions. Those executives from Europe or North America - who occasionally come to China for business trips, release new R&D centers or new products, visit customers, and return - generally give the Chinese car market and the Chinese economy a high rating. I estimate that these executives are accustomed to looking at numbers, and the figures in China are indeed encouraging.

As for those companies that euphemistically evade this investigation, their answer is equally interesting. One type is that overseas headquarters reject all interviews on economic issues; the second is that most of these problems require vehicle manufacturers to answer, and are not suitable for suppliers to answer.

In fact, on the question of who is more suitable to answer these questions, the "Automotive Business Review" has been making revisions and trials in the course of designing survey questions. A common problem is to see from what perspective the crisis will come in and in what order it will be presented to us. As far as the automotive industry is concerned, will it destroy the mainframe factory or the supplier first, or start from the sales shop?

Even the crisis may never come to the Chinese market. I am reminded of the last two months during my five business trips between Beijing and Shanghai - for an exclusive interview, product or press conference, and auto show. My friend made a appointment with me at a restaurant on the 8th floor of Super Brand Mall in Pudong, Shanghai. On this day, Shanghai has seen a rare sunshine for three weeks. From the window, the scenery of the Huangpu River is unobstructed. A tugboat on the river slowly passes by. At this time, at noon on the working day, there were a lot of people eating or shopping in Super Brand Mall, and there were a few tourists on the riverfront. At least in this picture, it is hard to see the impact of the financial turmoil on China.

The "Automotive Business Review" had intended to look at suppliers' survival opportunities from the perspective of vehicle manufacturers. Apart from the deviation in time, suppliers' time will be advanced or delayed, and their attention to the entire vehicle market is not great. .

From another perspective, on the surface, in the eyes of suppliers, customers are everywhere, but effective customers do not actually exist in large numbers. A supplier executive commented to the “Automotive Business Review”: “We only need to focus on sales of fixed-customer fixed products.” For example, in 2008, the overall sales of the Chinese auto market reached 9.3 million, but if your customers It is Southeast Auto - it sold less than 30,000 vehicles throughout the year, so you might as well pay for a product offered by GAC Toyota Camry.

With the complication of market product competition, the forecasting ability of a single product, as well as the prediction of a single-brand company, will become more serious than the prediction of the entire market trend. This is one of the challenges that suppliers have to face.

Finally, it needs to be explained that the survey question covers the Chinese auto market with a space-time limit of 12 months. The "Automotive Business Review" hopes that, from this relatively narrow scope, we can more easily find where and where our confidence lies, and inspire us to move forward. This also received some affirmation from the reply.

In this survey, the latest time point we got about the Chinese automobile market returning to normal level was also before March 2010 (that is, 12 months after the investigation began), and the most optimistic judgment is that Starting in July 2009, we can see the upward curve of the market. Of course, this curve and the curve we continue to see in the market for the first quarter of the year will continue to grow, but the "Automotive Business Review" is more willing to believe the former, after all, today's Chinese auto industry has no shortage of enthusiasm, but Lack of calm thinking.

Confidence and crisis

Among the surveyed companies or executives, the one who left the deepest impression on people is Dr. Yudong Chen, Bosch China’s executive vice president responsible for the sales of OEMs. On March 6, "Automobile Business Review" conducted an exchange with Chen Yudong for this investigation. Not yet seated, he said to me: "(We have confidence in the market)."

Chen Yudong said to the “Automobile Business Review”: “The key issue is confidence. There is a purchasing power, and everyone is not without money. This is the basis for economic development. The key is that everyone has the confidence to buy it. If public opinion or the tone of the market believes that this year will It is so bad that people will lose their confidence and they will not go shopping. I think that this year's encouragement for social purchasing power is still very important."

For the industry, the financial crisis is more of an external issue. The survey results show that, with regard to the causes of the financial crisis, more than 80% of the responses attributed it to two aspects: First, confidence-related - the financial crisis led to a decline in purchasing power, and second, the major economies fell too much. Confidence is the bridge between external and internal forces.

To some extent, confidence is a hope that depends on the full communication of information. I understand that Chen Yudong may need to transmit the confidence of this fire. If confidence can infect people around you, then the entire team, the entire company, and even the entire industry and society will have confidence to weather the storm.

The Bosch Group, which established China's first trade office in Shanghai in 1909, made three briefings during the Shanghai Auto Show. It rarely sprang up its business figures in the global and Chinese regions to enhance market confidence. In 2008, Bosch Asia-Pacific sales reached a similar share of North America, and Europe is still the largest part - up to 60%. China's sales reached 22.8 billion yuan, an increase of 25%. The number of local employees has increased by more than 3,000 to 20,200. China has become the country with the largest number of employees outside of Germany. Uwe Raschke, a Bosch Group Director in charge of Asia-Pacific business, told Automotive Business Review: “Our goal is to increase our sales in the Asia Pacific region from 17% to 25% globally.”

After the financial turmoil, multinational corporations mostly used their own new product plans or business data to stabilize the company's image and status in the market. Michelin introduced new mid-to-high energy-saving tires in May, and Bridgestone will further refine tire specifications in China in 2009. More companies, on time, announced that they are not perfect, but have also been growing in China.

In contrast, Chinese companies never seem to lack confidence. China, which is on the periphery of the financial crisis, likes to ask questions about the financial crisis. The answers to the questions are the same: We are very optimistic about China.

For domestic auto companies, what they must pay attention to is that they cannot be praised by public opinion. From the overall figure, China does have very good growth opportunities, but if it cannot solve internal problems, such as cost structure and product structure As well as issues such as the R&D process, it is very difficult for Chinese companies to sustain fluctuations that are slightly larger.

There will be no major ups and downs in the Chinese market, but the slowdown in growth is sometimes a big blow to the fragile corporate structure. This tests the ability of Chinese companies to predict the future and formulate strategies. If we blindly set targets on the basis of tens of millions of vehicles without considering some risks, the future will be worrisome.

In the survey, 90% of enterprises believe that China cannot achieve a 15% growth rate this year, and most companies set the market forecast range between 5% and 10%.

Here is a more distant market example for reference. A U.S. supplier executive who did not participate in the survey told the "Automotive Business Review" that the current market generally predicts that the North American car market will probably bottom out to 10 million in 2009, while they use 8.5 million as their strategy. Develop a foundation to achieve a more compact cost structure and product planning.

[next]

Practical technical route

Not participating in the auto show is a prominent feature of the surveyed companies. Of the 9 valid questionnaires, 2/3 of the companies were absent from the Shanghai auto show. If 30 companies were contacted, this proportion may increase.

This is a signal that companies are beginning to learn to achieve their goals more intelligently than to spend money. "Automotive Business Review" once asked a person in charge of the marketing department who did not attend the exhibitors. She said: "Not participating in the exhibition does not mean that the budget for this year will be reduced by several million yuan (the participation fee). The money still needs to be spent. Because companies will continue to promote technology and brands, we will do some other forms of more effective promotional activities."

In fact, none of these companies have reduced their investment in customer maintenance. The survey results show that everyone hopes to maintain a good customer relationship and will pay more attention to local customers. This emphasis does not depend on local customers. According to one of the companies, the current situation is to rely on familiar customers to maintain the operation, while looking for opportunities to cooperate with new customers.

In the past, the auto show was a good opportunity to display brands and communicate with customers. Now, they pay more attention to the one-on-one technology exhibition that the OEMs have done. The technology exhibition form is similar to the auto show. The suppliers will also give technical lectures, communication and product demonstrations. However, the people who come to visit have a stronger purpose. They are generally the enterprises purchasing or researching and developing. During the Shanghai Auto Show, Magna made technical exhibitions at Shanghai Volkswagen and Shanghai GM's Pan-Asian Technology Center. They will then be exhibiting at host plants in Nanjing and Wuhan. This ambitious company that wants to expand its business in Asia has eliminated 10 companies’ technology exhibition plans in the first three quarters of this year. As the most complete supplier of product series in the world, Magna's complete product series and sufficient cash flow will be their biggest advantages.

Even the few companies that participate in the auto show have come up with very practical technologies and products. For local auto companies, they can almost directly negotiate cooperation. In particular, some enterprises that hold chassis and powertrain technologies have good negotiating power and potential for cooperation with Chinese companies. If in the past few years design companies and engineering companies from Italy took away orders from a large number of Chinese companies, then in the next 3 to 5 years, similar powertrains such as Magna Powertrain, Continental Chassis Systems, Bosch, and Delphi will all be seen. More surprising developments in the powertrain. The transmissions and control units displayed by the mainland and ZF are all urgently needed and urgently needed by domestic enterprises.

The communication between Chinese OEMs and multinational supplier companies has not been carried out on a rational platform in the past few years. Both the Chery and AVL engine projects, SAIC double clutch transmissions, and many Italian companies are domestic companies. For the developed models, most of them started from the most advanced technologies and fields in the world to create world-class products.

The misunderstanding here is that China's auto industry may not have enough manufacturing capacity and experience to reach this stage. Too much and too good things, bad treatment is indigestion. Regardless of the cost, the delay in the completion of the entire vehicle project due to the high technical content in this cooperation project is not seen in the main engine plant.

Such pragmatic thinking will change the mentality of China's vehicle manufacturers in the past few years. They are no longer blindly pursuing world advanced technologies, but are able to adapt themselves to advanced suppliers based on their own development strength. On the platform.

In the past, multinational parts companies had to come up with their most dazzling technologies and products to start negotiations with the main engine plant. Now, with the seriousness of the industrial situation, the main plant is pragmatic, and the suppliers will come up with the most suitable things. Both parties can Rapidly enter into cooperation negotiations instead of looking forward to the future in air-to-air space.

For example, we often say that electric cars actually have to experience three phases of accumulated experience. The first is engine start-stop technology, then hybrid power, and finally pure electric power. The process is about 10 to 15 years. Accumulated experience, technological progress, and finally make the cost of electric vehicles enough to be accepted by the society. Today, Chang An Zhixiang matches the start-stop system of internationally renowned suppliers and will be available in September. After an uncomplicated match, this technology alone can achieve 3%~5%. Fuel saving effect.

This supplier told the "Automotive Business Review" that they promoted their start-stop technology at the Beijing Auto Show in 2008. Within a year, they got approval from the Chinese market. This shows that domestic companies are still willing to adopt practical new technologies. In these areas of technology, the accumulation of experience of foreign companies and the positive needs of Chinese companies can be well combined.

Cooperation is the way out

In the survey, "Automobile Business Review" heard such a story: When BYD Company started to build cars, its president Wang Chuanfu took his team one by one to visit those big suppliers. A multinational supplier who participated in the initial cooperation told Auto Business Review: “Wang Chuanfu talks to me, I said, no problem, I will do it for you. But my boss is still hesitant to let me do it, said BYD, the battery supplier. Where does it come from?"

This story made this executive still fresh in his memory. He said: "There are no eternal winners on the market. You have to do it for any business. In your supply list, as long as it can provide you with a market, it will be your customers. You originally supplied to BYD, and now it is digging. To a gold mine."

In the survey, Auto Business Review found that more and more suppliers hold this view. Developing new customers and new projects is not based on their own perspective, but on the other side.

Denso Yamada, General Manager of Denso China, described the transformation of corporate thinking in an exclusive interview with Auto Business Review. He said: "We are still mainly cooperating with Japanese companies, such as FAW Toyota, Guangzhou Toyota, Guangzhou Honda, and Changan Suzuki. They all look at issues from a Japanese perspective and from a foreign perspective, but in the future they must be Chinese. The main point is to look at the issue, and we will also focus on how Toyota will develop in the future, but in China, we may have to pay more attention to FAW, GAC, Chang'an, and other companies that I have co-operated with, and pay attention to how their own brand will develop. Develop product for your own brand.”

Under the guidance of cooperation ideas, these multinational companies have established strong local service teams, whether R&D or sales support. Delphi's John Absmeier came to China about three years ago. His mission was to create Delphi's hybrid division, which was first established to serve SAIC's medium-duty hybrid project. The car will be ready for next year. Was opened on the Shanghai World Expo. Mr. Zhang’s current position is Director of Business Development in the Asia Pacific Region in the Hybrid Electric Vehicle and Automotive Electronics Division of Delphi’s Electronics and Safety Division.

GIF Power China also entered China three years ago. They quickly established a complete automatic transmission and powertrain system testing capability to serve the overall planning of the SAIC DCT (Dual Clutch Transmission) project. This project also made them the first company in the Chinese market to cooperate with OEMs to launch DCT complete engineering services and verification. Bosch also established a dedicated new energy sector in China in Shanghai in 2007.

Projects like this that send a person from abroad and quickly develop into a team are not uncommon at the supplier. If they can start the project around 2004, these projects are now at the stage of flowering. Taking into account the cycle of vehicle R&D and the matching costs of components, their customers will generally no longer choose others, and they have established a relatively stable supply relationship between them. Chen Yudong told the "Automotive Business Review": "The headquarter appraisal of Chinese companies is in fact the assessment of its local sales, and the company's assessment of my department is to assess the number of new projects I get - this is the key to future sales ."

Peng Deyuan, President of Bosch China, said: “The Chinese market is eager for new technologies. The Chinese government has also made some policy incentives to encourage the development of new technologies. This is a good encouragement for our technical cooperation with Chinese manufacturers. Our general model is when When Chinese companies have technical needs, we will organize Bosch global team to help, and we will also work hard to establish relevant technologies and product capabilities in China.”

Moreover, multinational companies are also trying to find a consistent pursuit of cost and innovation with local companies. Nancy Gougarty, president of TRW Asia Pacific, said: “We are now considering the Chinese market, not from a cost perspective, but from an innovation perspective.” This is also worth thinking about for local companies. Cost innovation is just On the one hand, innovations in technology, management, and products are more important for market competitive advantage.

Problems and concerns

One of the issues in the investigation has not been resolved. Will developing markets become a driving force for balancing the global economic slant, and can China assume this role?

From the results of the survey, we still cannot be overly optimistic about the strength of Chinese auto companies and the government. Although everyone has expressed confidence in the Chinese market, it is somewhat uncertain as to how to respond to future increases in corporate income.

In response to valid questionnaires, there are five options for maintaining high growth, slight increase, basically unchanged, slight decline, and unpredictable. The most optimistic estimate is also higher than the average increase in the market, and the average increase in the market itself is a variable to be considered.

The pulling effect of China’s policies on the economy cannot be discounted. Shen Weiming, director of automotive industry at Tyco Electronics (Shanghai) Co., Ltd., said that in April this year, it had already returned to the same period last year. This company is doing electronic wiring harnesses, and the increased sales of mini-vehicles driven by the automobile-to-country policy has helped it greatly. Since entering China earlier, Tyco Electronics' product line can supply many low-cost plug-ins to micro-surfaces, and at the same time, it can also Provide high-end electronic components to suppliers such as Continental Automotive. But at the same time, he also believes that the year-to-date goal will also be lowered year-on-year, and that it can be achieved with 80% of last year.

This statement is true, and some of the more frank multinational companies also admitted that they will slow down the pace of some unnecessary investments, such as investing in huge summer testing grounds, more complete testing capabilities of R&D centers, etc., in the current market conditions. These test capabilities can be gradually developed according to the project.

On April 2, in Jiading, Shanghai, Ralf Cramer, president of Continental Automotive Chassis Systems, said: “We have not decided to invest in the next step in Jiading’s current R&D center. Developed to reach the scale of more than 200 engineers in 2011. At present, this research and development center has invested tens of millions of euros.

The inefficiency of Chinese companies’ investment and the repeated construction also need to be vigilant. Although the Chinese automobile industry has made progress in many areas under the encouragement of policies, there have also been repeated investment situations. For example, new energy and electric vehicles are all being done, but there is no news of cooperative development.

Multinational corporations have started to pay attention to those brands that have the hope of becoming competitive products in their own brands, helping them to reach higher levels, rather than stand by and wait for it to become a top-selling product. But considering the variables that local companies have in vehicle model development, these companies generally have to seriously analyze cooperation.

Among the models exhibited at the Shanghai Auto Show, if you remove the luxury models and new energy models, you will find that the entire vehicle company has not come up with a lot of models that can be put into mass production, and the concept car hat is pitched. The OEM is slowing down the investment in R&D of new products, and the design cycle of the models has been artificially elongated. This is a big test for suppliers.

A supplier told Auto Business Review that they had to judge for themselves whether the current bid for the project might be listed on the market and whether the time and scale of the listing were as good as those of the OEM. Just like shopping in China, they have to learn to “cheap” and “discount” the numbers reported by the OEM.

In terms of industrial structure, almost all the respondents believe that Chinese auto companies need to be cautious when they go abroad for mergers and acquisitions, and lack of adequate management capability is their greatest concern.

From the point of view of the participants in the merger and acquisition, everyone thinks that almost all companies have this possibility, but the actual operation they actually go to mergers and acquisitions will not be so common. Mergers and acquisitions may only serve as a means to tide over difficulties, such as stabilizing confidence, seeking financial support, etc.; may be only a financial operation, not a strategic attempt.

Chen Wenkai, the president of Gasgoo.com, said: “In the case of mergers and acquisitions, there will be occasional domestic occurrences. It is not the norm. It is not a trend. There may be an upsurge of overseas mergers and acquisitions by domestic companies, but it will soon be calm.”

Industrial adjustment will also bring opportunities to local companies. Chen Wenkai believes that in the future manufacturers will value low costs more, and means to achieve low costs will need innovation. New models must emerge. This is a challenge for multinational companies and a new opportunity for local companies. It is equal to returning to the cost competition that the Chinese are best at. These fluctuations bring good opportunities for local OEMs to catch up.

However, a corresponding problem is that the policies of the automobile to the countryside and the encouragement of small-displacement vehicles may lead to structural changes in the domestic automobile market. The output of suppliers and manufacturers does not decline, but the overall product value will decline, and accordingly, the profit Space will also be squeezed. It is difficult to judge whether future suppliers can obtain better income.

This is consistent with the view of Gao Dinggui, general manager of Honeywell Turbo Technology (China). He believes that there are some worrying factors in the future challenges, such as the bankruptcy of suppliers and the shift of consumers to low-priced, low-tech vehicles. This worry is not without reason, low price and low technology content is a way to avoid low-cost products, especially in China.

In our survey, the suppliers surveyed also believe that the best profitability of the Chinese market in the future should be car sales and service, and only 10% of companies choose suppliers as the industry with the best future income.

In the changing landscape, the Chinese government has proposed four major and four small plans, which on the surface have made auto companies more centralized but may not reduce the number of companies in the market. Through spin-offs, mergers and acquisitions, and restructuring, we may see a picture that is even more complex and where companies have different competitive advantages.

The supply chain management of the OEM may undergo a major change. Companies like Magna may provide OEMs with more supply chain management services, while some companies that provide core components have greater bargaining power from R&D sources.

The survey shows that this change is a positive stimulus for suppliers. They no longer have to go around businesses that produce 50,000, 100,000 or 200,000 vehicles per year. Instead, they can negotiate with companies that produce 2 million vehicles and 1 million vehicles a year in better cooperation. In response to this question, more than half of the respondents believe that the opportunity for Chinese auto companies to acquire customers after their merger has increased.

However, domestic small car manufacturers that cannot be included in the scope of the merger, such as the seahorse, the Great Wall, Geely, etc., will face a lot of variables. First, by contrast, the price discounts that suppliers offer to them may be smaller than those of large companies because of their small size. Second, these small companies will also face difficult cooperation choices: whether to cooperate with each other or with foreign investors, or Cooperation with large domestic companies.

It is regrettable that the most dynamic automobile companies in China are not those big, such as SAIC, FAW, Dongfeng, but they are small businesses such as Haima, Great Wall, and Geely.

This microscopic pattern is somewhat similar to the world's macro pattern in terms of style. In the global automotive market, considering the company's experience and strength, the power of balancing the market comes from developing countries, but the decisive force is still in the hands of the developed country market. In the Chinese auto market, the power to balance the market comes from small manufacturers, but the decisive force is in the hands of large state-owned groups. If this reality cannot be accepted, both parties may make erroneous decisions.

[next]

Rui Shike

Bosch Group Director, Head of Asia Pacific Affairs

In 2008, Bosch also experienced a decline in the automotive business year-on-year. We feel that in order to deal with such a situation, we must first save costs, so that even in times of economic hardship, we can maintain the company's health. The second is to emphasize innovation strategy. When the economy is not good, innovative products are equally attractive. Everyone will be interested in truly innovative products. Bosch's R&D investment this year is 40 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 8% of global sales. In addition, we will also invest in those markets that have very good growth prospects, and there will be a greater proportion of investment. China's auto market is also the only major market in the world that is still growing. We think that this trend will continue in 2009.

Ke Lei

Continental Group Board Member, President of Continental Chassis Systems

We are very optimistic about the Chinese market and we are optimistic about Asia. There is good growth potential here. Jiading is part of our global network of R&D centers. It will first serve the Chinese market, but at the same time it will also undertake the development of the Japanese and South Korean markets, and it may also develop for the European market in the future. The mainland will also have an R&D center in India and the Indian market is constantly evolving. In today's economic environment, we feel that the Chinese market may grow faster and more stable. Despite the impact of the economic crisis, the stability of the Chinese currency and government policies is very good.

Kevin Quinlan

Delphi Vice President, Powertrain Division, Asia Pacific

Local companies can pay attention to R&D trends in new energy. This is a very good thing. Although we cannot expect to see the popularity of electric vehicles in the market in the short term, this important direction of development cannot be ignored. Moreover, electric vehicles are easy to control and may be more suitable for areas where China’s automobile culture has not developed for a long time. Consumers will be more comfortable with new products and technologies. For example, when we promoted electric cars in North America and Europe 20 years ago, we encountered a lot of resistance to the culture and car habits. These resistances are not so great in areas such as China.

Tan Yuesheng

President of BorgWarner China

In the cost structure, process innovation is a means within an enterprise, policy support is an external means, and a shared platform is a method of achieving scale, and material innovation is a long-term goal. These pieces must be combined with the strategic goals of the company. Going alone to pursue a certain aspect will take the wrong direction.

Jay Kunkel

Continental Group President, Asia

Of course, economic conditions are a challenge for the automotive industry. As for whether or not the model will change from a mid-size car to a small one, I think the first is fuel-efficient considerations. It is not only considering the internal combustion engine but also technologies such as hybrid power. Therefore, I think we should change the way of thinking, not whether we consider a mid-size car or a small car, but consider whether the powertrain technology used in the car is the most fuel-efficient.

The Chinese market is an opportunity for us, of course, it is also a challenge. This is why we need to set up a technology center here. We also hope to do more local R&D work for this market in the future. We also hope that through our efforts, we can help Chinese domestic auto makers become world-class competitors. There is no doubt about the challenges, but in the Chinese market, the opportunities are still very large.

Chen Yudong:

The key issue is confidence

Automotive Business Review: How is the market situation this year?

Chen Yudong: With confidence. The 10th, 11th, and 12th months of 2008 were particularly pessimistic. After the spring of this year, especially after the Spring Festival, everyone's mood changed. Everyone thinks that this year is at least a positive increase.

After the acquisition, what impact will suppliers have?

In fact, M&A is a good thing for suppliers. We now have to face many customers. After their mergers and acquisitions integration, the number of customers we will face first will decrease, and secondly, the purchase volume of their individual companies will certainly increase, because of the large scale. And you need to know that after the merger, the supplier will not be replaced immediately. In the old projects, the old and familiar suppliers will generally be used. Bidding will only appear on new projects. There is no big difference between this and the past.

Will it happen that they are pushing down prices with more massive purchases?

In fact, to understand this from another perspective, from the supplier point of view, the OEM's purchase volume is large, we also have to take the initiative to give them some price concessions, which is about the same as daily shopping. Because of the increase in our production volume, it will also bring about a reduction in costs. This part will also allow profits to be given to customers.

Can the industry's bad situation reduce costs?

This has to be looked at separately. For example, if you supplied BYD F3 last year, then you have a very good situation. You are also good for Camry. But if you offer a product that is not selling well, then you have a very bad situation, depending on the specific product.

What about customer relationship maintenance?

We have already adjusted this year. We are not weakening, but we are investing more in customer maintenance. My department is responsible for sales of OEMs, which is responsible for the maintenance of customer relationships. In this section, I can say that we have not cut any budget. We still have to face customers and approach customers. We are still recruiting people to recruit customer maintenance personnel. Their role is to take care of all the problems that local customers have. Because everyone thinks Bosch is too big, it is difficult to understand and it is not easy to contact. When there are too many departments and it is not clear who to contact, local customers can find our resident representatives. He will help customers solve problems or find suitable ones. Bosch related departments that can help customers solve problems.

Do you think the future growth of Chinese auto companies is domestic or foreign?

This may be different views of everyone. I think that we should first do a good job in our domestic market, make a solid brand, and do solid quality. If you are afraid to go abroad for sales, you may feel fresh and cheap at the beginning and sell a lot. However, the quality problems and after-sales service problems that will soon arise will make you go home. Examples of this are not uncommon. Both Toyota and Hyundai have had the same experience in the North American market. We must not pay attention to the detours they have ever taken because of their present success. If Chinese companies want to catch up, the first thing to avoid is to take a detour. Because it is very easy to damage a brand when the foreign car is not doing well or there is a problem.

[next]

Yamada:

Emerging markets, such as China and India, are the basis for continued growth in the world of electrical equipment.

Automotive Business Review: Have you worked in China for so many years and have you encountered situations like this one today?

Yamada: Not once. China's auto has always been a rising momentum of development. Although it has fluctuations, it has always grown. From 2002 to 2003 and from 2006 to 2007, there were two fluctuations. Now it is a large-scale decline. The world is declining. Many aspects of the economy are affected. For example, exports, domestic markets, and other industries are all greatly affected.

Some people think that the time for the recovery of the industry may not reach 2010. What do you think?

The market change in October 2008 was very obvious because of the global financial crisis. In fact, the global auto industry began to increase its inventory in July 2008. In November, manufacturers began to reduce inventory by reducing production. Japanese auto companies responded very early. I estimate that the first half of 2009 will reach the ideal state of inventory, and the second half will probably enter the stage of development and growth.

从整体看，2009年中国汽车年产量大概会和2008年差不多，但上半年产量会略低，而下半年产量会略高，主要是消化库存带来的影响。这么看的话，可能国内全年的销售量会有些小幅度的增加。

商用车的曲线会更加明显地出现前高后低的趋势。2008年7月实施大型卡车的国Ⅲ排放限制，而2009年7月1日则开始轻卡的国Ⅲ排放限制。现在，轻卡销售大量增加，那么下半年一定会下降。

几年之内，电装在中国有什么计划吗?

我们未来会关注自主品牌怎么发展，现在也开始针对自主品牌做产品开发，目前产品还未出来，但等自主品牌车型上市，你们一定会发现电装的产品在其中。这些产品在2~3年之内都会上市。

这些开发工作是在中国本地完成吗?

有些部分是在中国当地做。现在，我们在上海有个小型的研发中心，很快在西安还开设一间软件研发公司。我们一步一步本地化，研发也是如此，本地产品本地研发，一是时间快、沟通方便，二是客户要求也越来越个性和复杂。

本地的投资和研发投入，方针、政策是总部出，具体运作是中国这边来做。

金融风暴之后，一些跨国公司暂缓了新投入，比如建工厂或者研发中心，电装这边反倒没停?

总公司说，中国市场的发展潜力最大，其他还有巴西、俄罗斯、印度。这对我们来说是有利的环境，总公司给我们的任务一直是推动发展。

2009年，电装在中国会有一个增长指标吗?

现在，电装在日本的销售额占全球销售额的一半左右，其他市场，美国贡献30%，欧洲贡献10%左右，亚洲也是10%左右，中国大概是3%~4%。对于中国，我们目前没有具体的增长率，但希望在电装全球的业务比例里增加一些百分比。

电装在2000年之后，一直是每年10%以上的增速，这与丰田的发展速度很接近。这10年来，我们一直是和丰田一同发展，但今后，我们一方面要继续和丰田一同发展，另一方面还要在丰田以外，和别的企业共同发展。如果我们不能在中国、印度等新兴市场汽车公司那里取得共同发展的机会，那么电装全球就无法获得持续的增长基础。

目前有没有遇到主机厂延长付款周期，比如变成三个月或者半年?

我们一般会在开始合作的时候，签署比较严格的合同，约定好基本契约条款。我们是每个月月底结算，然后接下来的一个月内，100%现金回款。这是我们的原则，全球电装都是这么做。不过也有厂家不是这么做，各个厂家的做法不同。

欧美供应商开始争夺日本客户，这样的竞争中，电装的优势在哪里?

日系车开发是与供应商一起合作开发的过程，与欧美企业不太一样。电装可以很早期就参与整车开发，与主机厂一起做好这个业务，这个过程中有很多沟通和互相让步，大家来回商量。但欧洲供应商则是告诉主机厂：我能做这个，你用这个好了。他会给你A、B、C几个选择，就像到百货大楼买东西一样，(可挑选的余地有限)。我们则是一直讨论、修正、改进，经常这样做。

不过，欧美供应商给我们的压力是来自价格方面、开发费用方面的。欧美的习惯是先投入开发，以后再向主机厂回收，慢慢赚钱。比如谈到一个价格，欧美供应商会说，多少?可以。目前没有钱，可以，那免费吧。然后过段时间，开始标价出售，价格一点一点增加。

不过，那些在欧洲的日本企业，有些还是采用日本供应商的零部件。比如说，系统产品，而不是单个产品，需要掌握全体、了解局部才能开发好。日本供应商就能把握比较整体的产品开发，比如控制发动机系统、空调系统、安全系统。我们可以提供系统给它。具备有这种能力的企业不多。

你觉得国内汽车公司喜欢走日系还是欧系道路?

产品性能来说，会选择日系那种品质比较稳定的感觉，但在设计方面，他们会喜欢一些欧洲车型风格。所以，外观会很有欧洲风格，但里面的内饰以及耐久性等会比较接近日系。另外节能方面还是非常重要的考量因素。

武田邦俊：

最大挑战是产业技术的彻底革新

汽车商业评论：金融风暴对你的工作有什么影响?

武田：影响还是很大的。虽然中国有很大的本土市场，但中国制造业的30%~35%还是要依赖出口，主要是欧洲、美国、日本，而这些地区由于受到金融危机影响，在很长的一段时间内都会失去以往的购买力。从2008年10月开始到今年1月，金融危机对我们事业的影响已经显现出来。一个有利因素是中国政府很快拿出应对举措，因此我估计，今年4月，这些政策带来的刺激效果会慢慢显现出来。到今年下半年，由于出口造成的GDP的5%~7%的影响会得到恢复。

惠州合成橡胶工厂目前还是按照预定进行吗?

合成工厂在2008年12月举行了开业仪式，由于整体市场需求量的降低，之后的生产并未能按照既定计划进行。但我们在产品质量和生产管理方面并没受到影响。

你觉得市场会在什么时候恢复过来呢?

前段时间，我和日本邮船等十多家日本在华企业的社长碰过面，我们也探讨过当前的经济局面。从他们提供的信息看，中国的集装箱数量目前是减半，但铁路运输在增加，这说明中国政府对工业投资的鼓励已经开始出现效果，包括铁路网的扩张。集装箱减半说明出口市场还未恢复。

就卡客车轮胎市场而言，我估计会在今年下半年恢复生机。乘用车轮胎市场上，中国今年1~2月份轿车销售虽有下降，但与美国、日本比起来，降幅还是小得多。美国市场2007年销售1740万台，2009年预期是略超过1000万台。中国乘用车轮胎市场对我们有影响，不会像大胎那样出现大起大落，可能会影响10%~15%，但也是增长的。

中国是产业大国，其经济复苏手段与美国不同。欧美市场可能需要3~5年恢复，但中国从今年下半年开始恢复，经过1年到1年半的调整，到2010年下半年，应该会回到预定的轨道，恢复原来的状态。

未来12~18个月内，你觉得哪些会给你的公司带来较大挑战?比如，原材料价格、经济体下滑，以及竞争对手，或者汇率变动。

竞争对手方面，到目前为止，我们从未感到威胁，未来也不会构成威胁。中国经济体制的变动方面，中国经济从现在开始进一步恶化的机会不会太高，也不会带来很大威胁。原材料变动方面，以前可能是由于一些投资性基金的介入出现大幅波动，但经过这轮金融风暴后，很多国家政府会对这些投资行为做一定的控制或限制，因此今后一段时间内再度发生波动的概率也不大。

那你感觉，威胁或挑战会来自哪些方向?

最大的挑战是，所有人突然都不倡导汽车，而选择其他交通工具了，也就没有轮胎需求了。这是玩笑话。从今后10年汽车产业看，整体还是上升趋势，轮胎也是上升趋势。我相信，轮胎产业不会出现停滞，但我担心会有一些导致产业彻底变革的革新技术。比如，目前轮胎是靠炭黑来加强，这导致轮胎都是黑色，未来会不会出现彩色轮胎?会不会出现更好的添加材料来提供更好的轮胎强度?以及，轮胎未来可能不再需要充气。这些技术可能会使我们的竞争环境出现剧烈变化。

但有一点，不管如何革新，轮胎作为车辆重量的主要承担者，以及保证车辆实现前进、停止、转弯等功能的角色应该不会改变。甚至，未来还可以考虑扩大轮胎的使用范围到更广泛的交通工具上。

[next]

苏明月：

同时保持乐观与悲观

汽车商业评论：导致金融风暴的原因是什么?

苏明月：这次经济下滑是金融导致，是金融的管理问题不善带来的。中国的出口量很大，如果国外的客户无法获得贷款，失去购买力，那么中国企业也会受到影响。我们也遇到一些类似的情况，一些客户本来看好中国的客车，但不得不推迟购买。我相信这个会很快过去。

对于中国市场来说，中国政府在几年前就开始提倡从世界工厂转型、不再是廉价产品的制造基地，我觉得目前的危机为这个转型创造了一些机会。一些中国企业发展出高科技、环保、高附加值的产品，我们也是这么在中国推介自己的产品的，这是很好的出路。

市场恢复点是在什么时间?

我有两个判断，一个乐观，一个悲观，我觉得生活在世界上，每个人都会有两个判断，也应该有两个判断。乐观是为了推动自己，维持信心，而悲观则是为了万一的万一出现，做好风险防范。悲观的判断是，2010年初才能恢复，乐观的话，我感觉2009年4月已经开始恢复了，很多情况都开始改善。

未来一年的业绩增长如何?

回头看一下，我们2001年进入中国建厂，我们的增速超过行业平均，有些年份我们是100%的增速，平均下来是35%的年增长率。考虑到我们不断引入的新产品新技术，我觉得，虽然有金融风暴对经济的冲击，我们今年也能得到一个30%左右的增长率，从去年底10亿多人民币增长到差不多13亿元。

未来12个月，你更重视开发现有客户还是新客户?

我们希望能够为客户长期提供有价值的产品，并且不断地改进，比如一代、二代这样地供应下去。这里也包括新的产品，我们也会主动推荐他们一些新的解决方案、新的产品理念。我觉得，对于这些给了我们很大信任的客户，我们应该为他们提供更好的照顾。因为我们的产品的服务很重要，我们服务做得也很不错，因此我们的老客户经常会在某些产品领域又成为我们的新客户。

同时，我们也努力获得全新客户的认识，不断地向他们推介我们的产品和方案。如果没有新客户的不断加入，我们也不会发展得这么快。对我们来说，二者同样重视。但如果放到一个时间段里，比如很短期的考虑，我们会重点维护这些已经为我们带来利润的老客户。这和我们平时做人的处理方式差不多，比如我在接受你采访，一个陌生人来电，我不会中止采访而去接电话，我会和电话里的人说对不起、稍等，然后再认真完成和你的采访。

付款周期是否有延长?

从目前看，我们的中国客户还未出现延长付款或者不付款的情况。我觉得国内客户很守信用，他们会想办法解决资金问题。付款周期是要和客户协商的，如果是新的合作，我们可能会要求先付款后供货，如果是长期的、大批量的供货，我们会有另外的处理方式。