Analysis on the Influencing Factors of Chemical Market in 2006 (II)

Chen Yu Since China's accession to the WTO, the world economy has been on a rising period, and the process of global economic integration is also accelerating. Today, China’s reform and opening up has brought the two domestic and foreign markets closer together, and changes in the international market have also had a greater impact on the domestic market. The Office of Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council recently released relevant information on China's tariff adjustment in 2006. Jin Renqing, Minister of Finance, introduced that since January 1, 2006, China has further reduced import tariffs on more than 100 tax purposes, involving vegetable oils, chemical raw materials, automobiles and auto parts and other products. Among them, the chemical raw materials involved in this tax reduction are relatively large, and the tax rates for chemical materials such as polyethylene, polypropylene, and polystyrene have dropped by about 1 percentage point. Jin Renqing also said that after this tax cut, China has basically completed its duty to reduce taxes after joining the WTO. According to the experience of previous years, with the further reduction of China’s import tariffs this year, the market has been further liberalized, and foreign chemical products with competitive advantages have entered the Chinese market at a faster rate than before, and domestic enterprises will face even more serious problems. The competitive situation. Even some of China's bulk chemical raw materials with high external dependence, despite a serious shortage of domestic production capacity, may experience phased surpluses this year, causing prices to fall and the domestic market to decline. And those products with domestic production capacity that already have excess overdue, if they still lack competitiveness compared with imported products, then the entire industry may be in trouble. On the other hand, with the rapid increase in the frequency of anti-dumping measures imposed on chemical products exported to China by foreign countries in recent years and China's import of chemical products, the response is more sensitive to the domestic chemical market. This year, the fluctuation of some products may be even more drastic, and may even be In a short period of time, there will be a big turn in the market trend. For example, in the recent domestic TDI market, as soon as the results of the mid-term review of anti-dumping were announced, there was a clear upward trend in the market. Some products, after encountering anti-dumping abroad, have shrunk overseas markets, and some products have been converted into the domestic market, which will inevitably lead to a decline in prices in the domestic market. Because many countries have frequently used technical trade measures and intellectual property protection measures in recent years, and even some developing countries have used import bans and customs valuation methods that are too high to impose restrictions on China's export products, it has had a certain impact on China's chemical market. In foreign trade, it is also necessary to pay attention to the state's foreign trade macro-control and policy impact on certain industries, such as last year's restrictions on fertilizer export policies, which will also affect the changes in the domestic chemical market. However, trade friction is also good, and tariff adjustment is also good. The trend of China's chemical market accelerating its integration into global economic integration is difficult to change. China's oil and chemical industry will also continue to grow in this process of integration.