·Low-speed growth into the new normal of China's automobile development

After the "Golden September and Silver 10", the Chinese auto market gradually came to an end in 2015, and the overall sales situation this year is basically clear. From January to October this year, China's automobile sales volume was 19.2781 million units, an increase of 1.51% year-on-year. Compared with the 1.4% growth rate of the mid-term exam and the slight increase of 0.3% in the first three quarters, the results were significantly lower than last year. The growth rate of 6.86% is a far cry from the increase of 13.87% in 2013.
Since the year of entering the annual sales of 20 million units in 2013, the growth rate of the Chinese auto market has slowed down year by year, and this behemoth is hard to be as flexible as before. Auto expert Zhang Zhiyong recently said in an interview with the "First Financial Daily" reporter that in the next few years, low-speed growth will become the new normal of China's automobile development. Zhu Huarong, president of Changan Automobile (000625), also said during the Shanghai Auto Show in April this year that under the “new normal” of the economy, the pressure on the auto industry is growing, and the growth of 5%~7% in the future is already very high. optimism.
The market is unpredictable. A number of car companies reported that the momentum in January this year was not bad, but it began to turn sharply from February, and then remained sluggish until the recent situation improved. At the beginning of this year, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (hereinafter referred to as "China Automobile Association") predicted that China's automobile growth rate will remain at around 7% in 2015, but by the middle of this year, this growth rate will be lowered to 3%.
According to the statistics of the China Automobile Association, in January this year, China's auto sales still maintained a year-on-year growth of 7.56%, but sales in February fell by 31.31%, down 0.22% year-on-year. Subsequently, the situation of China's auto market continued to deteriorate. Since May, China's auto production and sales have declined year-on-year. In June, production and sales have both declined again. The production and sales of passenger cars have declined for the first time since December 2008. The situation in July and August is not optimistic. Sales in September rebounded. In October, it saw a strong rebound of 9.72% from the previous month and 11.79% from the same period last year.
Just in April, Shanghai Volkswagen, Changan Ford, Beijing Hyundai, FAW-Volkswagen and many other joint venture brands have been unable to hold the market cold, and have discounted promotions. In the context of the overall slowdown of China's auto market this year, the market performance of different factions is very different, and competition has intensified. Self-owned brands and Japanese companies have come out of last year's downturn and this year's performance is eye-catching. Guangqi Honda, GAC Toyota, Dongfeng Nissan and other car owners have recently expressed their confidence to complete this year's sales target.
Zhang Zhiyong said that Japanese cars were sitting on the throne of foreign brands in China before 2012, and they have been tested in recent years due to natural disasters and man-made disasters. After accelerating the introduction of new technologies and new products, Japanese cars gradually recovered this year and returned to normal track. The market share of independent brands has increased. In addition to seizing the market hotspots such as SUV and MPV, it is also related to product quality and technology improvement. However, the independent brands will differentiate in the future. Some high-quality independent brands will grow rapidly and compete with joint venture brands. However, most of the independent brands may go downhill in the next few years, and some will even be eliminated.
Last year, 3.68 million units and 3.54 million units respectively won the Chinese auto sales champion, the runner-up Volkswagen and GM. This year, it has become relatively weak in China. In addition to the high base, it has a relationship with market competition and its own reasons. Affected by the "Sagitar Breaking" incident, Volkswagen's sales in China in the first nine months of this year fell by 7.4%. After the outbreak of "emissions fraud" in September, the public is currently suffering little in China. In October, the total sales volume of Shanghai Volkswagen and FAW-Volkswagen was 151,300 units, an increase of 3.3% year-on-year. In order to promote sales, Shanghai Volkswagen took the lead in the price war in April, and then zoomed in at the end of the year. Since November, many of its models have been exempt from tax on purchase.
In October, GM's recovery is more obvious, and it is expected to steal the sales champion of Volkswagen in China this year. In October, GM and its joint ventures sold 327,000 units in the Chinese market, up 15% year-on-year, and achieved double-digit year-on-year growth. From January to October this year, GM's cumulative retail sales in China reached 2,189,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%.
In addition, sales of Korean brands in China also showed rapid growth in October. Hyundai Motor Group’s sales in China reached 156,600 units, a year-on-year increase of 5%. Among them, Beijing Hyundai sold 100,000 units, and Dongfeng Yueda Kia sold 56,500 units.
Some industry insiders believe that the rapid increase in sales or some "distortion" in October does not necessarily mean that the market is improving, and many car companies are concentrated in this month's task. Low-speed growth will be the main theme of the future Chinese auto market.
However, there will always be some market segments that will outperform the market. After the SUV sold this year, many car companies accelerated the launch of SUV products, betting that 2016 SUV products continue to heat up. With the national policy tilting towards new energy vehicles and small-displacement vehicles, these two sectors are also expected to become hot spots in 2016, and there will be rapid growth.

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