After encountering the "winter" of 2012, what do truck companies think about the 2013 heavy truck market? With the recent closing of corporate business conferences in a row, the answer has gradually emerged.
Recently, the reporter sorted out the market pre-judgment of eight major truck companies and found that the company's judgment on the situation of trucks in 2013, especially the heavy-duty truck industry, has been divided. Among them, six companies are optimistic about the truck market in 2013 and believe that the heavy truck market in 2013 will be about 640-700,000 vehicles, an increase of about 5%-10% year-on-year; one company is bearish and believes that the market for medium- and heavy-duty trucks in 2013 will decline slightly year-on-year. The scale remained at the level of 900,000 vehicles. One company was flat. It believes that the total demand for medium and heavy trucks in 2013 was about 930,000, which was basically the same as in 2012.
Concerns: The market for medium- and heavy-duty trucks has dropped slightly year-on-year. The scale is about 900,000 vehicles.
Representative Enterprise: Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle
In 2013 and in the near future, the domestic medium- and heavy-duty truck market will enter a period of slight growth. This is a conclusion that Dongfeng Commercial Vehicles has reviewed the economic situation at home and abroad and the development of the industry. Huang Gang, general manager of the company, believes that in 2013 the world economy will continue to exhibit a “weak growth†situation. The Chinese economy will face transformation and structural adjustment. It will continue, coordinate, and develop healthily, and the growth rate will slow down. It is estimated that GDP growth will be around 8.0% in 2013. Consumption stabilized and the increase in heavy chemical products continued to decline. Affected by the macroeconomic environment, the market for medium and heavy trucks in 2013 will decline slightly year-on-year, and will remain at the scale of 900,000 vehicles throughout the year.
Despite cautious judgments on market development, the goal Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle proposed to itself in 2013 was “a flattering trend.†While reducing the market environment, Libao’s sales and market share in heavy-duty trucks is not lower than that in 2012, which is not low. In the 180,000 and 20%, continue to maintain the industry first.
He said that the implementation of the National IV emission regulations will be the biggest challenge for the entire industry in 2013. Due to the technical difficulties, implementation conditions, vehicle cost and other factors, and the superfluous influence of overcapacity brought by State IV, the demand for 40,000 vehicles will be curbed, which in turn will result in greater uncertainties in the medium to heavy truck market in 2013.
According to Huang Gang's analysis, from the perspective of the industry as a whole, the total demand of the industry will further decline in the future, and the operational efficiency of vehicles will become higher and higher. The transportation industry will begin to develop in an intensive, efficient, intelligent and professional manner; The more perfect and more stringent the implementation, the more important the technical force will be in the dominant position and role in the future competition; the market demand will be mainly changed from new to newer, and customers will be more mature and rational; the Chinese market will be internationalized and international The market competition tends to be China's competitive landscape and has begun to have a profound impact on the commercial vehicle industry.
Ping Ping: The demand for medium- and heavy-duty trucks is about 930,000. It is basically the same as last year.
Representative Enterprise: FAW Liberation
Zhang Bing, general manager of FAW Jiefang Automobile Sales Co., Ltd., judged that the growth rate of China's GDP in 2013 was about 7.8%, and the probability of a sustained downturn in the macro economy was relatively small, and it will show a gradual warming trend, which is still in the midst of a trough. The heavy truck market is undoubtedly a good news. Zhang Bing said that in 2013, the total demand for medium and heavy trucks was about 930,000, which was basically the same as in 2012. The market demand structure for traction, dumping, cargo loading, and special use will remain basically stable, and market demand will continue to be sustained. Increased, high-speed and high-efficiency trends.
Despite seeing the 2013 market, FAW Jiefang still targeted the sales of medium-duty trucks this year at 169,000 units, an increase of 11.9% year-on-year, with a market share of 17.5%; the sales target for light trucks is 10,000 units, striving to achieve expansion in the mid- to high-end light truck market. .
Optimistic: Heavy truck market scale 640,000-700,000 increase 5%-10%
Representative Enterprise: China National Heavy Duty Truck Shaanxi Automobile Group SAIC Iveco Hongyan JAC Heavy Truck Co., Ltd. Truck Foton Motors
The development of the medium and heavy truck industry is closely linked with the macroeconomic situation. Six heavyweights such as China National Heavy Duty Truck Group are optimistic about the truck market this year, mainly based on the judgment of the macroeconomic environment at home and abroad.
China National Heavy Duty Truck executives believe that this year is still the transition period of the national economic situation from guaranteed growth to stable growth. In particular, various initiatives since the 18th National Congress convened have shown that this year's economic work will focus on improving the quality and efficiency of economic growth. Maintain the continuity of macroeconomic policies. Therefore, 2013 will be a year in which the economic growth will moderately rebound. The central government will launch a number of favorable policies to promote the economic development of the entity. This will, to some extent, stimulate the growth of commercial vehicles, especially the truck market.
In this regard, Shaanxi Automobile Group and Jianghuai Heavy Trucks hold the same view. At the same time, Zhou Yinchao, general manager of Shaanxi Automobile Sales Company, believes that the demand for fixed asset investment, real estate investment and social consumer goods will increase slightly this year; in steel, coal, cement and other related industries, the growth rate will decline, and it is still in a downturn; In terms of policies and regulations, the relevant policies on rejection, suspension, cold chain transportation, oil price, and new energy will have a certain impact on market sales and structure.
According to Xiong Weiming, general manager of Iveco Hongyan, it is expected that the growth rate of infrastructure investment and real estate investment will reach 15% in 2013, which will increase the demand for steel, cement, and coal to other industrial products, improve the transportation environment, and promote the renewal of used cars. At the same time, the economic situation of the international advanced economies in 2013 will improve. China's import and export will resume slightly, which will in turn lead to a recovery in port transportation and foreign trade cargo throughput.
Based on the above factors, each of these companies individually predicted the 2013 truck market. Cai Dong, president of China National Heavy Duty Truck, judged that the heavy truck market will increase by 8-10% in 2013. Zhou Yinchao predicts that the growth rate of the domestic heavy truck market will remain at about 9.4% this year, with sales of about 710,000 vehicles. Xiong Weiming believes that the heavy-duty truck market will show moderate growth in 2013, and it is expected to have a scale of 700,000 vehicles, an increase of about 10% over the same period last year. Jiang Xinghuai general manager Xiang Xingchu believes that the heavy truck market in 2013 will have a certain recovery, an increase of 5% -10%. Liu Bo, chairman of the joint truck marketing service company, said that in 2013, the heavy truck market is expected to increase by 5% to 640,000 vehicles. Foton Motor believes that there will be a higher increase in the commercial vehicle market in 2013, and the heavy truck market will also become warmer, resulting in a substantial increase in sales volume.
On the basis of making predictions for this year's economy, companies have also set specific requirements for 2013 sales targets. Among them, China National Heavy Duty Truck's existing series of products will be together with the newly released Mane Platform models, and jointly promote the growth target of sales growth of not less than 10% in 2013 and one percentage point increase in the market share of heavy trucks. Shaanxi Automobile's civilian heavy truck sales target in 2013 is 85,000 vehicles. For this reason, Shaanxi Auto will continue to accelerate the upgrading of heavy truck products. It will upgrade the DeLong F3000 and mine dump trucks, and the new DeLong M3000 and the new Oron. It will also be listed in 2013. SAIC Iveco Hongyan has to strive to sell 30,000 cars, an increase of 76% year-on-year, and continues to increase its market share, especially the market share of road vehicles. Jianghuai Heavy Duty Trucks will strive to achieve the sales target of 30,000 vehicles. Lightweight heavy trucks, LNG heavy trucks, and China IV heavy trucks will be its market priorities. The joint truck sales target for 2013 is 8,000 vehicles, of which 2500 LNG heavy trucks and 5500 diesel heavy trucks. Futian Auman's 2013 sales target of 120,000 units, with a market share of 16.9%, strives to leap to the third place in the market.
Judgment is the final judgment, everything is tested by the market. To this end, experts suggest that in the uncertain situation of the heavy-duty truck market, it is hard truth for companies to do a good job of their products. The most important thing is to do everything in the same way, change the product structure, accelerate the transformation and upgrading, and compete with the products. Strengthen the company's core competitiveness.
Corporate actions
Rational judgments
Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle: From 2013 to 2017, Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle will enter the second stage of marketing transformation. The first is the transformation of networks, helping dealers to build everlasting and long-lasting stores that can be passed down from generation to generation; Second, transforming after-sales service, and promoting after-sales service from functional to value-based, prompting distributors to move toward full-value chain integrated marketing, and ultimately enabling distributors to Aftermarket earnings increase to more than 60% of total revenue; Third, marketing support transformation, to achieve the entire process of the vehicle life cycle marketing support.
China National Heavy Duty Truck: At the end of 2012, CNHTC released two Mannheim platform products, indicating that from 2013, China National Heavy Duty Truck will participate in the entire market competition in the field of China Card, medium and heavy trucks and heavy trucks. In addition, this year, SINOSTEM will comprehensively promote the marketing of the sub-series, dividing the entire product into two product lines: road car products and engineering car products. Then, the two major lines will be further refined into 10 lines, which will be enhanced through the effective integration of channel resources. The market competitiveness of each line.
Shaanxi Automobile Group: The strategic focus of 2013 was the transformation of marketing, and a better market through service extension. The first is to focus on the needs of users beyond the product and extend the service coverage through network promotion and after-sales services. The second is to maintain a superior product market while breaking through the weak product market. The third is to adjust the product channels and change the dealers' assessment methods. The fourth is to increase support for the service network. The fifth is to increase the supply of three packs of external accessories.
FAW Liberation: 2013 was a crucial year for FAW to achieve its overall strategic goal. The marketing system will continue to implement the working principle of “advancing capacity, adjusting structure, strengthening service, and bravely fighting for the firstâ€, and will continue to focus on improving “market development capabilities, sales and customer retention capabilities, service support capabilities, and business management capabilitiesâ€. Focusing on “deepening the marketing of lines and intensifying the promotion of terminalsâ€, we will continue to enhance the competitiveness of marketing systems and brand image.
SAIC Iveco Hongyan: In 2013, Hongyan will implement a market strategy that differentiates competition and overseas exports. On the one hand, differentiated competition around market segments includes lightweight products and LNG heavy trucks. On the other hand, the expansion of overseas markets led to the export of 4,900 heavy trucks, which were jointly driven by self-operated exports, distributors' exports, and the "Troika" acting as a shareholder exporter.
Foton Motor: In 2013, Foton Motor will carry out strategic transformation in accordance with the "proactive change" strategy. Under its “2020 strategy†target, Foton Motor proposes that the low-end transition to the high-end and build the mid-range products of the world standard; investment to the transition of consumption, from investment products to consumer products; the transformation of the manufacturing industry to the service industry, expand Productive service industry; domestic transformation to foreign countries, first developing countries, post-developed countries, expanding global markets; five major strategic transformations including the extension of the value chain of gold and the extension of the value chain.
Joint truck: The joint truck will carry out a centralized corporate strategy this year, select 10 key industries such as intelligent transportation, and determine 10 key provinces and regions according to the target market of each industry, and then select the 5 core areas with channel advantages. In addition, the joint truck has also formulated a strategy for product centralization, and gradually strives for high-end markets. It will focus on developing the LNG product line and the K12 high-end product line.
JAC heavy trucks: Lightweight heavy trucks, LNG heavy trucks, and China IV heavy trucks are the focus of JAC's 2013 market. JAC LNG heavy trucks are still at the market introduction stage. As market preparation matures, this year will double growth. At the same time, the market introduction of the National IV heavy truck is also one of the focus of this year's JAC.
Policy trend
Safe and energy saving is still the main theme National IV emission standards will be implemented on July 1 The policies and regulations that have the greatest impact on the truck industry in 2013 are the IV emission standards for vehicle compression ignition engines and vehicles that will be implemented on July 1.
In fact, most truck companies are able to meet standards, and higher standards are good for companies that regulate operations and can eliminate small vendors or low-end products. At the same time, due to the technical difficulties, implementation conditions, vehicle costs and other factors that are brought by China IV, and the superfluous influence of excess capacity, the demand of the truck market will be curbed this year. Emission standards upgrades will bring about the first increase in costs. With the addition of a tail gas aftertreatment system, the cost of car purchases will increase, which will have a negative impact on the new car market.
Nine Demonstration Province Key Transporters will Install "Beidou"
The Ministry of Transport recently issued a notice requesting that nine provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities), such as Tianjin, Hebei, Jiangsu, and Anhui, as demonstration provinces, must complete more than 80% of the Beidou/GPS dual-mode vehicle terminal installation tasks of the province by the end of March.
The notice made it clear that since June 1st, all new passenger vehicles and heavy-duty trucks and semi-trailer tractors entering the demonstration province's transportation market should be equipped with Beidou/GPS dual-mode vehicle terminals before leaving the factory. Heavy-duty trucks and semi-trailer vehicles should be connected to the public supervision and service platform for national road freight vehicles. Vehicles that do not install or install Beidou/GPS dual-mode vehicle terminals in accordance with regulations shall not be issued or examined for road transport permits.
The trailer will be exempted from strong insurance from March 1st
From March 1 this year, the trailer will not have to be covered by compulsory insurance for motor vehicle traffic accidents. In the event of road traffic accidents causing personal injury or property damage, the insurance company insured by the towing vehicle shall pay compensation within the limits of the motor vehicle traffic accident liability compulsory insurance liability; insufficient parts shall be paid by the towing vehicle party and the trailer party in accordance with the law. responsibility. This is the new regulation of the “State Council’s Regulations on Compulsory Motor Vehicle Accident Liability Insurance†revised recently.
The cost burden is lighter and there is less worries for the future. With the opportunity to use the trailer to avoid strong insurance, China will enjoy a more favorable development environment for domestic suspension and transportation, which will further promote the optimization of China's road freight organization structure and the transformation and upgrading of the industry.
Hanging transport recommended models lead the technological progress
Recently, the Ministry of Transport issued the second batch of recommended models for road dumping and transport, with 30 models of 29 tractors and 23 semi-trailer companies listed on the list. Among them, 17 LNG tractor models were selected for the first time.
It is beneficial to the technical progress of vehicle production companies to recommend the type of suspension and transportation. It represents the highest level of vehicles in the cargo transportation industry in China at present, and will be the main model of the cargo transportation market in conjunction with the implementation of relevant preferential policies and incentive policies. Up till now, among the recommended two types of highways for suspension and transport of roads, there are 39 tractor models and 36 semi-trailer models. Since the announcement of the first batch of suspension-carriage-recommended models announced in January last year, vehicle manufacturers have organized and produced their products in strict accordance with national standards and transport requirements, and have achieved positive interaction with the road transportation industry.
Mandatory scrap new regulations take effect on May 1
On January 14, the Ministry of Commerce, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Public Security, and the Ministry of Environmental Protection jointly issued the "Standards for Mandatory End-of-life Vehicle Discarding Standards." It requires the enforcement of motor vehicles that meet the end-of-life standards based on the use of motor vehicles, safety technology, and emission inspections. Retired, effective from May 1, 2013.
In accordance with regulations, the service life of low-speed trucks and micro-cargo trucks equipped with multi-cylinder engines is 12 years, the service life of trucks with dangerous goods transport is 10 years, and the service lives of other trucks (including tractor-trailers and trailer-mounted trucks) are 15 years. Years; 15 years for special trucks with cargo function, 30 years for special trucks without cargo function, 10 years for trailers and semi-trailers for transport of dangerous goods, 20 years for container semi-trailers, and other semi-trailers 15 years. In addition, for the minivan truck driving 500,000 kilometers, medium and light trucks travel 600,000 kilometers, heavy-duty trucks (including semi-trailer tractors and trailer trucks) driving 700,000 kilometers, dangerous goods transport trucks A 400,000-kilometer, 300,000-kilometer low-speed truck loaded with multi-cylinder engines will lead to scrapping.
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